Philippines: Adverse weather forecast across southern regions through at least Feb. 1

Severe weather is forecast across parts of the southern Philippines through at least Feb. 1. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather advisory warning of significant amounts of rainfall in the affected area over the coming days. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast across Davao De Oro, Davao Oriental, and Surigao Del Sur provinces Jan. 30 and across Caraga and Davao regions Jan. 31. Lesser rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is forecast over the rest of the affected area through Feb. 1. As of Dec. 22, PAGASA has issued severe general flood advisories (the second-lowest level on a four-tier scale) across Caraga and Davao regions and moderate general flood advisories over Northern Mindanao and Soccsksargen regions. Officials could update and extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.