Australia: Adverse weather forecast across parts of northeastern Northern Territory and far northwestern Queensland through at least Feb. 17 /update 1

Severe weather is forecast across parts of northeastern Northern Territory and far northwestern Queensland through at least Feb. 17. A tropical low is moving slowly in the Gulf of Carpentaria Feb. 15 and is expected to track southeastward and cross the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between the Northern Territory and Queensland border during Feb. 16. The system will bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas before weakening as it moves inland. There is a moderate chance of the storm system developing into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland Feb. 16.

As of Feb. 15, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued a cyclone warning for coastal areas between Port Roper in Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island and Borroloola, but not including Ngukurr. Strong winds gusting up to 100 kph (62 mph) are expected to develop along the coast between Port McArthur and Mornington Island early Feb. 16 before possibly extending across the warning zone Feb. 16. Heavy rainfall is expected along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast Feb. 15 before intensifying Feb. 16 as the system moves closer to land. Higher than normal tides are expected across the southern Gulf of Carperntaria coast Feb. 16 and extending to the western coast Feb. 17. Large waves may produce minor flooding of low-lying coastal areas as the system nears the coast Feb. 16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast for the system; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

The BOM has also issued severe weather warnings for heavy and locally intense rainfall and damaging winds across adjacent inland areas of both northeastern Northern Territory and far northwestern Queensland. Rainfall totals of over 25 cm (10 inches) and winds gusting over 100 kph (62 mph) are possible in the warnings areas. Flood watches are in place across the affected area and marine wind warnings have been issued for coastal areas. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming hours and days.

Authorities in Queensland have evacuated at least 60 at-risk residents from Burketown to Mount Isa. In Northern Territory the Roper Gulf Regional Council has announced the Wugularr School in Beswick would operate as an evacuation centre.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render further bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and employees' inability to reach work sites. Electricity and telecommunications service disruptions are possible where significant flooding, strong winds, or landslides impact utility networks.