22 Feb 2024 | 03:07 AM UTC
Australia: Tropical Cyclone Lincoln forms in the Indian Ocean and is tracking southwestward near northwestern Western Australia early Feb. 22
TC Lincoln tracking southwest near Western Australia early Feb. 22. Landfall over far western Western Australia, Australia, early Feb. 24.
Tropical Cyclone Lincoln has re-developed in the Indian Ocean and is tracking southwestward near northwestern Western Australia early Feb. 22. As of 11:00 AWST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 961 km (597 miles) northeast of Learmonth.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical low, then a category 1 tropical cyclone as it tracks west-southwestward through early Feb. 23. Lincoln is forecast to slowly turn to track south-southwestward through early Feb. 24 before making landfall over far western Western Australia near Exmouth. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly as it tracks south-southeastward, then southeastward across western Western Australia before dissipating over west-central Western Australia early Feb. 26. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; some changes could occur in the coming days.
As of early Feb. 22, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone watch from Roebourne to Minilya Roadhouse, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow, and Exmouth. Winds gusting up to 100 kph (62 mph) could develop from Roebourne to Cape Preston early Feb. 23, from Cape Preston to Ningaloo the evening of Feb. 23, and from Ningaloo and Minilya Roadhouse late Feb. 23. Heavy rainfall is likely about the western Pilbara late Feb. 23 before spreading southwards into the western Gascoyne Feb. 24. Tides will be higher than normal near the path of the system Feb. 23-24.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
