Australia: Tropical Cyclone Lincoln tracking south-southwestward near northwestern Western Australia early Feb. 24 /update 2

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln has re-developed in the Indian Ocean and is tracking south-southwestward near northwestern Western Australia early Feb. 24. As of 05:00 AWST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 320 km (199 miles) north-northwest of Learmonth.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain its strength as it tracks southward, passing just to the west of the Exmouth-Ningaloo area through Feb. 24 before weakening into a tropical disturbance and making landfall over far western Western Australia over the Gascoyne coast between Coral Bay and Cape Cuvier early Feb. 25. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly as it tracks south-southeastward across western Western Australia before dissipating near Shark Bay late Feb. 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Feb. 24, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning from Giralia to Cape Cuvier, including Exmouth. Winds gusting up to 90 kph (56 mph) may develop in the Exmouth-Ningaloo region early Feb. 23 before extending southwards to Coral Bay and possibly to Cape Cuvier later in the day. Heavy rainfall is likely near the storm's path, developing along the Gascoyne coast Feb. 24 before spreading southwards late Feb. 24. Higher than normal tides are likely between Exmouth and the Shark Bay area.

Authorities have opened emergency shelters in Carnarvon Civic Centre and Exmouth Shire Hall in advance of the storm. Authorities have urged travelers and campers south of Exmouth to leave now. Parts of the North West Coastal Highway are closed, including southbound between Carnarvon Road and Nanutarra Roadhouse, due to possible flash flooding. Several other roads are also closed; more information can be found here.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.