Australia: Tropical Cyclone Lincoln tracking west-southwestward near northwestern Western Australia early Feb. 23 /update 1

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln has re-developed in the Indian Ocean and is tracking west-southwestward near northwestern Western Australia early Feb. 23. As of 11:00 AWST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 489 km (304 miles) north-northeast of Learmonth.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical low, then a category 1 tropical cyclone as it continues west-southwestward through late Feb. 23. Lincoln is forecast to slowly turn to track southward along the Exmouth-Ningaloo area through late Feb. 24 before making landfall over far western Western Australia over the northern Gascoyne coast. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly as it tracks south-southeastward across western Western Australia before dissipating over west-central Western Australia early Feb. 26. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; some changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Feb. 23, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning from Mardie to Coral Bay, including Exmouth and Onslow, and a cyclone watch from Coral Bay to Wooramel Roadhouse, including Carnarvon.

Winds gusting up to 100 kph (62 mph) could develop from Roebourne to Cape Preston early Feb. 23, between Mardie and Ningaloo late Feb. 23, in the Exmouth to Coral Bay region Feb. 24, and between Coral Bay and Wooramel Roadhouse, including Carnarvon late Feb. 24. Heavy rainfall is likely near the path of the storm about the western Pilbara late Feb. 23 before spreading southwards into the western Gascoyne Feb. 24. Abnormally high tides could result in minor flooding between Mardie and Wooramel Roadhouse.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.