09 Feb 2024 | 03:06 PM UTC
Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone 12 tracking east-southeastward toward Vanuatu late Feb. 9 /update 2
Tropical Cyclone 12 tracking east-southeastward in the Coral Sea late Feb. 9. Landfall forecast over Efate Island, Vanuatu Feb. 10.
Tropical Cyclone 12 is tracking east-southeastward in the eastern Coral Sea, west of Vanuatu, late Feb. 9. As of 23:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 222 km (138 miles) west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.
Forecast models indicate that the weather system will maintain tropical storm strength as it tracks generally southeastward through early Feb. 10 before making landfall over Efate Island around midday Feb. 10. The storm is expected to strengthen slightly as it continues to track southeastward away from Vanuatu into the South Pacific Ocean through early Feb. 11 before weakening and then dissipating to the southwest of Fiji Feb. 12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late Feb. 9, the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has issued a severe weather warning for strong inland winds and isolated heavy rainfall with thunderstorms across Vanuatu and a marine warning for strong winds and large swells across all Vanuatu waters.
Air Vanuatu (NF) has announced that all domestic flights will be suspended Feb. 9-11 and services to and from Noumea–La Tontouta International Airport (NOU), New Caledonia, will be suspended through the afternoon Feb. 11. The flight from Brisbane Airport (BNE) to Bauerfield International Airport (VLI) in Port Vila on Feb. 9 has been rescheduled to Feb. 11 and flights to and from Auckland Airport (AKL), New Zealand, scheduled for Feb. 10 have been canceled. Flights to and from Australia and New Zealand are anticipated to resume from Feb. 11.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
