Gulf of Carpentaria: Tropical Cyclone 14 forms in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is tracking northward near Northern Territory Feb. 16

Tropical Cyclone 14 (known as Tropical Cyclone Lincoln in Australia) has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is tracking northward near the Northern Territory Feb. 16. As of 12:30 ACST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 220 km (137 miles) northwest of Mornington Island.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will turn to track southwestwards and make landfall over the northeastern Northern Territory between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border the afternoon of Feb. 16. After landfall, the system is likely to weaken rapidly and dissipate as it tracks southwestward into north central Northern Territory through late Feb. 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; some changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 16, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning from Bing Bong in Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Borroloola, Port McArthur, and Mornington Island. Winds gusting up to 110 kph (68 mph) are forecast to develop along the coast between Bing Bong and Mornington Island Feb. 16 as the storm approaches and crosses the coast. Heavy rainfall is likely along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, while tides will be higher than normal across the southern Gulf of Carpentaria Feb. 16-17. Minor flooding of low-lying coastal areas is possible as the system nears the coast Feb. 16. Flood watches have been issued across parts of Carpentaria coastal and Central inland rivers.

Authorities have confirmed one fatality in the Malbon River at Duchess, Queensland, Feb. 15 due to floodwaters. About 60 residents from Beswick have been evacuated into emergency accommodation in town due to flooding. Phone connection in Borroloola Town in the Northern Territory has been cut off.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.