India: Farmers' rallies likely to persist in northern states through at least mid-February /update 1

Unionized farmers will very likely continue their ongoing series of protest campaigns in the northern parts of India through at least mid-February. The goal of the action is to secure various concessions, including set minimum prices for agricultural commodities. As of late Feb. 14, participants are holding a massive march toward New Delhi from several northern states, including Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh. Isolated incidents of clashes have occurred between police and protesters in several areas, including the Shambhu border area in Punjab. Some reports indicate farmers have parked a large number of tractors and other agricultural vehicles on national highways leading to Punjab. In recent days, the protest campaign has caused severe transport disruptions along highways leading into the National Capital Region (NCR). The action has drawn hundreds of thousands of participants. On Feb. 15, organizers will hold railway blockades near the Haryana-Punjab border area between the hours of 12:00-16:00. The action will almost certainly impact inter-city rail services in the surrounding regions.

Officials have implemented mobile internet curbs and public gathering restrictions in several areas, including a number of districts in Haryana and Rajasthan. Authorities have established barricades and traffic detours along national highways 9, 19, 34, 44, and 48; at entry points to Delhi, including at Haryana's Bahadurgarh, Singhu, and Tikri areas, as well as those connecting Ghaziabad and Gurugram in Uttar Pradesh State; and areas bordering Punjab State such as Haryana's Ambala, Khanauri, and Sirsa districts, and Rajasthan's Sri Ganganagar District. Traffic diversions to alternative entry points have also increased congestion on nearby roads. Authorities have announced the intermittent closure of gates to multiple Metro train stations in Delhi for the duration of the protest; Metro and inter-state train services may also face disruptions if the action is prolonged.

Related disruptions, additional demonstrations such as roadblocks affecting Delhi, and further clashes cannot be ruled out over the coming days, especially during an associated general strike scheduled for Feb. 16. Supply chain disruptions are possible during prolonged blockades; transport of essential items such as food, fuel, and medical supplies may be affected. Security forces will likely forcibly disperse protesters to enforce gathering bans, resulting in arrests and further clashes. Those traveling to or from Delhi will probably face security checks at checkpoints. Officials may impose localized movement restrictions in areas bordering Delhi in case of significant violence. Authorities may reduce inter-state bus services to Delhi as a precaution. Businesses in the NCR may be affected due to workers' inability to travel into and out of Delhi, and any internet curbs. Lingering disruptions may occur after the protests end as services clear their backlogs.