Leeward Islands: Adverse weather forecast across much of the Leeward Islands Feb. 8

Severe weather is forecast across much of the Leeward Islands Feb. 8. A weather front is moving through the region and will bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough seas. Rainfall amounts of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) are expected on top of previous amounts of up to 10 cm (4 inches) in parts of the region in the previous 24 hours. Heavy downpours may trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.

As of early Feb. 8, the Antigua and Barbados Meteorological Services have issued a flash flood watch across low-lying and flood-prone areas of Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, and the British Virgin Islands. High surf advisories have been issued for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, and the British Virgin Islands and small craft advisories for the British Virgin Islands. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) for the Caribbean Netherlands has issued heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, and small craft advisories for Saba and Sint Eustatius. Meteo France Guadeloupe has issued orange heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings and yellow strong wind warnings across Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy, as well as orange rough sea warnings in some coastal areas. Heavy yellow rain, thunderstorm, strong winds, and rough sea warnings are in place for Guadeloupe.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. If strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.