Pakistan: Adverse weather forecast to continue across much of the country through at least March 3 /update 1

Adverse weather is forecast to continue across much of Pakistan through at least March 3. A weather system that is currently affecting parts of the country is expected to subside Feb. 27 before another system approaches western parts of the country Feb. 29 and spreads across much of Pakistan March 1-3. As of Feb. 27, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a press release stating that rain, wind, and thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the country Feb. 29-March 2; snowfall is also likely in some mountainous areas. The PMD has forecast heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and isolated hailstorms with snowfall in elevated areas across much of Balochistan Province Feb. 29-March 1. Heavy-to-extremely heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and isolated hailstorms with snowfall in elevated areas are expected over parts of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan administrative territories and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province Feb. 29-March 3. Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and isolated hailstorms are forecast over Islamabad Capital Territory and northern and north-central parts of Punjab Province March 1-2, with heavy snowfall also possible in far northern parts of Punjab Province. Showers, isolated hail and thunderstorms, and strong winds are expected across much of the rest of Punjab Province Feb. 29-March 2 and much of Sindh Province Feb. 29-March 1.

The PMD has warned that heavy rainfall may trigger flooding in parts of Balochistan Province Feb. 29-March. 1 and possible flash flooding in elevated areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan administrative territories, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Islamabad Capital Territory, and far northern Punjab Province March 1-2. Heavy snowfall could cause road closures in parts of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan administrative territories, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, and far northern Punjab Province. Landslides are also possible in elevated areas of northern Pakistan. Strong winds may cause property damage and power outages throughout parts of the country.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.