08 Feb 2024 | 03:59 AM UTC
South Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 12 forms in the South Pacific Ocean and is tracking eastward west of Vanuatu afternoon Feb. 8
TC 12 tracking eastwards in South Pacific Ocean afternoon Feb. 8. Landfall over Erromango Island, Vanuatu likely afternoon Feb. 10.
Tropical Cyclone 12 has formed and is tracking eastward across the South Pacific Ocean, west of Vanuatu, the afternoon of Feb. 8. As of 14:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 648 km (403 miles) west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.
Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen slightly but remain at tropical storm strength as it turns to track generally southeastward through Feb. 9, passing southeast of northern and central Vanuatu before making landfall over Erromango Island the afternoon of Feb. 10. The storm is likely to continue tracking southeastward away from the island through early Feb. 12 before making a sharp turn to track westwards towards southern Tafea Province through early Feb. 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of the afternoon of Feb. 8, the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has issued a severe weather warning for isolated heavy rainfall with thunderstorms over Vanuatu and a marine warning for strong winds and large swells across all Vanuatu waters.
Meteo-France New Caledonia has issued yellow strong wind, heavy rain, and thunderstorm warnings over northeastern Grande Terre Island.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
