06 Feb 2024 | 04:20 AM UTC
South Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Nat forms in the South Pacific Ocean and is tracking east-southeastward north of the Southern Cook Islands late Feb. 5
TC Nat tracking east-southeast in South Pacific Ocean late Feb. 5. Close approach to French Polynesia Feb. 7-8.
Tropical Cyclone Nat has formed and is tracking east-southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean, north of the Southern Cook Islands, late Feb. 5. As of 17:00 TAHT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,263 km (785 miles) west of Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it tracks generally east-southeastward, passing north of the Southern Cook Islands through Feb. 6. The system is forecast to turn to track eastwards and make a close approach to western French Polynesia Feb. 7-8 while weakening into a zone of disturbed weather. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late Feb. 5, the Cook Islands Meteorological Service is maintaining a tropical cyclone alert for the Southern Cook Islands and a strong wind warning for the land and waters of the Southern Cook Islands.
Meteo France French Polynesia has issued orange (middle level on a three-tier scale) heavy rain warnings across the Windward and Leeward islands and orange wind warnings over Mopelia. Yellow thunderstorm, strong swell, strong wind, and heavy rain warnings are in place across northern and western Tuamotu-Gambier.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
