South Pacific: Tropical Depression Nat tracking east-southeastward near western French Polynesia late Feb. 6 /update 1

Tropical Depression Nat is tracking east-southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean and is approaching western French Polynesia late Feb. 6. As of 20:00 TAHT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 354 km (220 miles) west-southwest of Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain tropical depression strength as it tracks generally east-southeastward and then eastward to the south of the Society Islands in western French Polynesia Feb. 7. The system is expected to weaken into a zone of disturbed weather and then dissipate as it approaches the Tuamotu archipelago in central French Polynesia early Feb. 8. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Feb. 6, Meteo France French Polynesia has issued orange (middle level on a three-tier scale) pre-cyclone alerts for the Leeward and Windward islands in the Society Islands and yellow cyclone warnings for Tuamotu Center North, Tuamotu Center, and Tuamotu West. Orange heavy rain and swell warnings have been issued for Mopelia, the Windward Islands, and the Leeward Islands and orange strong wind warnings over Mopelia and the Leeward Islands. Yellow thunderstorm warnings are in place across the Society Islands and the central, northern, and western Tuamotu archipelago. Yellow heavy rainfall, strong wind, and swell warnings have been issued across the central, north-central, northwestern, and western Tuamotu archipelago. Yellow heavy swell warnings are in place for the western Austral Islands and yellow strong wind warnings for Rapa Island.

The Cook Islands Meteorological Service is maintaining strong wind warnings for Aitutaki and Mauke islands, the waters north of the Southern Cook Islands, and the land and waters of the Northern Cook Islands. A coastal inundation warning is in place for the northern and eastern coastal low-lying areas of Aitutaki and Mauke islands, while a coastal inundation alert is in effect over the coastal areas of the Northern Cook Islands.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.