Afghanistan, Pakistan: Increased border tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan likely to persist through late March

Cross-border violence along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border will likely persist through late March. Tensions increased on March 18 after Pakistan launched airstrikes in Afghanistan's Khost and Paktika provinces, targeting suspected hideouts of Hafiz Gul Bahadur militant faction, an affiliate of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Reports claim that eight people died in the attack. The airstrikes were reportedly a response to a militant attack on a military outpost that killed seven Pakistani soldiers March 16. Subsequently, Afghanistan's Ministry of Defence stated that Taliban forces retaliated by opening fire on Pakistani soldiers at border posts in Kurram District, killing one soldier and injuring two others.

Further retaliatory attacks, including airstrikes, in Afghanistan and Pakistan's border areas are possible over the coming weeks. Officials could announce movement restrictions or evacuations in the Afghanistan and Pakistan border region if clashes escalate. The movement of military personnel and checkpoints will also likely disrupt travel along primary and secondary road routes. Fighting could impact utilities, including power and water supply.