Australia: Tropical Low 19 tracking south-southeastward in the Gulf of Carpentaria off the far northeast coast of Northern Territory late March 15

Tropical Low 19 is tracking south-southeastward in the Gulf of Carpentaria off the far northeast coast of the Northern Territory late March 15. As of 21:30 ACST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 678 km (422 miles) east of Darwin.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a Category 1 and then Category 2 tropical cyclone as it tracks south-southeastward and then curves to track southwestward over the Gulf of Carpentaria through March 17 before making landfall over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast near Port Arthur March 18. After making landfall, the storm is expected to weaken rapidly into a tropical disturbance as it tracks generally westward into northern parts of the Northern Territory through March 19, Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late March 15, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued a cyclone warning from Alyangula (Groote Eylandt) in NT to the NT/QLD border, including Borroloola but not including Ngukurr. A cyclone watch is in place from the NT/QLD border to Mornington Island, including Mornington Island and adjacent parts of the Carpentaria District inland to Robinson River. Damaging winds gusting up to 110 kph (68 mph) are expected over Groote Eylandt early March 16 and up to 100 kph (62 mph) across much of the rest of the warning and watch zones late March 16-17. Stronger winds gusting up to 125 kph (78 mph) are possible as the system approaches the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast from late March 17. Heavy rainfall is ongoing in northeastern parts of the Top End region as of late March 15 and will likely increase particularly over island and coastal parts of northeastern NT on March 16 before spreading further inland on March 17. Intense rainfall is possible around coastal areas of Carperntaria District from March 17. Abnormally high tides could cause minor flooding along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast March 16-17. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

The BOM is also maintaining a severe weather warning for damaging winds and heavy rainfall across across eastern parts of the Arnhem Forecast District as of March 15. Winds gusting up to around 100 kph (62 mph) are likely along the northeast Arnhem coast east of Milingimbi late March 15 before contracting to the far eastern Arnhem coastal fringes by early March 16. Six-hourly rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) and 24-hourly totals of up to 22 cm (8.7 inches) are possible in eastern parts of the Arnhem District. The heavy downpours may trigger flash flooding in the region and a flood watch has been issued over eastern Top End river catchments.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.