Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Filipo tracking westward toward Mozambique late March 11 /update 1

Severe Tropical Storm Filipo is tracking westward in the Mozambique Channel late March 11. As of 23:00, the system was around 489 km (304 miles) west-northwest of Europa Island.

Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain its strength and make landfall over northeastern Ihambane Province in Mozambique early March 12 before weakening into a tropical depression as it tracks south-southwestward and then southward over Inhambane then far southern Gaza provinces March 12-early March 13, before exiting off the coast into the Indian Ocean near the border between Ihambane and Gaza provinces. Filipo will likely strengthen back into a severe tropical storm before transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks generally southeastward away from the African continent March 13-15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late March 11, Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a red tropical disturbance advisory (the highest level on a three-tier scale) due to the likely impacts of Filipo. Rainfall totals of around 20 cm (8 inches) accompanied by thunderstorms and winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) are expected in parts of southern Sofala Province and across much of Ihambane Province through March 12. Rainfall totals of around 10 cm (4 inches) and thunderstorms are forecast across much of the rest of Ihambane and Sofala provinces and parts of Zambezia Province.

The South African Weather Service has issued level 6 (out of 10) orange disruptive rain warnings across Nkomazi Municipality in far eastern Mpumalanga Province and Big Five Hlabisa, Jozini, Mtubatuba, Nongoma, Umhlabuyalingana, uMhlathuze, and uPhongolo municipalities in far eastern KwaZulu-Natal Province. Yellow level 4 warnings are in place across the rest of far northeastern South Africa.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.