Mozambique: Moderate Tropical Storm Filipo tracking southwestward over Ihambane Province early March 12 /update 2

Moderate Tropical Storm Filipo is tracking southwestward inland over Ihambane Province, Mozambique, early March 12 having made landfall in the past few hours north of Inhassoro. As of 08:00, the system was around 552 km (343 miles) west of Europa Island. There have been no initial reports of damage or casualties associated with the storm; however, it will likely take some time before damage assessments can be conducted and the full extent of the storm's impact is known.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly but maintain moderate tropical storm strength as it tracks south-southwestward and then southward over Inhambane Province March 12-early March 13, before exiting off the coast into the Indian Ocean near the border between Ihambane and Gaza provinces. Filipo will likely strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it tracks generally southeastward away from the African continent March 13-15, before weakening as it transitions into a post-tropical cyclone March 15-16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early March 12, Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a red tropical disturbance advisory (the highest level on a three-tier scale) due to the likely impacts of Filipo. Rainfall totals of around 20 cm (8 inches) accompanied by thunderstorms and winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) are expected in parts of southern Sofala Province and across much of Ihambane Province through March 13. Rainfall totals of around 10 cm (4 inches) and thunderstorms are forecast across much of the rest of Ihambane and Sofala provinces and parts of Zambezia Province. Adverse weather is also likely over other parts of southern and south-central Mozambique, including Gaza and Maputo provinces and Maputo City, over the coming hours and days.

The South African Weather Service has issued level 6 (out of 10) orange disruptive rain warnings across Nkomazi Municipality in far eastern Mpumalanga Province and Big Five Hlabisa, Jozini, Mtubatuba, Nongoma, Umhlabuyalingana, uMhlathuze, and uPhongolo municipalities in far eastern KwaZulu-Natal Province. Yellow level 4 warnings are in place across much of the rest of eastern KawZulu-Natal, Limpopo, and Mpumalanga provinces. The Eswatini Meteorological Service had advised of heavy rainfall and strong winds over eastern parts of the country late March 12-early March 13.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.