11 Mar 2024 | 03:00 PM UTC
Russia: Heightened security is almost certain nationwide from mid-March
Tight security almost certain across Russia from mid-March during the presidential election period. Protests and clashes are possible.
Russian authorities will almost certainly implement heightened security measures nationwide around the March 15-17 presidential elections. Increased security measures will likely be most visible in large cities, particularly Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Some opposition activists, including opposition leader Yulia Navalnaya, have called on supporters to indirectly protest by voting at 12:00 on March 17; although these gatherings are unlikely to take the form of traditional protests, authorities will likely deploy additional security to polling stations at that time. Enhanced security measures will likely continue in the days following the voting period as officials certify and release the election results.
Law enforcement officials will likely gather at government buildings and public spaces to dissuade potential protests; localized transport disruptions are likely in these areas. Opposition protests are possible between March 15 and the formal certification of election results; gatherings are likely near polling stations, government buildings, and public squares. Clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement officers are possible at all protests; however, the potential for unrest is highest around midday on March 17 and after the formal certification of the election results.
Avoid all protests. Exercise additional caution near government buildings, public spaces, and polling sites. Keep all necessary documents on your person. Remain patient and courteous if stopped by law enforcement officers.
President Vladimir Putin is the front-runner to win the election with a run-off unlikely. Russian officials will likely aim to suppress expressions of political dissent during the election period, particularly on March 17. Prominent opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in prison on Feb. 16. Opponents of the Putin regime have accused Russian officials of assassinating Navalny and called for renewed opposition against the government. The election also coincides with an ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Russian officials will likely dedicate significant resources to ensuring that the election period proceeds without incident, as they view any potential civil unrest as a serious risk to national stability.
