01 Apr 2024 | 02:31 PM UTC
India: Heightened tensions, security measures, and related disruptions almost certain to persist in Manipur State through at least early June /update 24
Tight security and related disruptions likely to continue in Manipur State, India, through at least early June due to ongoing unrest.
Increased security, protests, and related recurring disruptions are almost certain to persist in Manipur State through at least early June due to ongoing ethnic tensions, primarily between the Kuki and Meitei communities. Associated violence, which began in May 2023, has left approximately 200 people killed and 1,100 others wounded. As of early April, law enforcement personnel continue to conduct regular operations to recover arms and ammunition and detain suspected militants. In late March, officials carried out several operations to seize weapons, explosives, and narcotics in several districts, including Bishnupur, Chandel, and Imphal East. Officials also detained five suspects in Chandel and one militant affiliated with the Kuki Liberation Army (KNA) insurgent group in Churachandpur. The government has also deployed security personnel in certain public spaces to ensure the free and secure passage of vehicles.
Additionally, activists continue to stage sporadic diverse gatherings, including shutdown strikes (bandh) and road blockades, across the state. Kuki- and Meitei-based organizations typically stage the most disruptive strikes. Road blockades have previously affected the distribution of essential goods, such as fuel and foodstuffs, to the state, especially to and from the Imphal Valley. Authorities have attempted to circumvent such blockades by using aircraft and military convoys to deliver essential goods. Typical rally sites include residences of local politicians and security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings often draw thousands of participants.
Authorities will almost certainly continue to maintain an increased security presence across the state for the foreseeable future. Further internet and mobile data service suspensions and other enhanced restrictions, such as curfews, are almost certain to occur over the coming days in response to evolving operational needs. Further security incidents remain possible. In recent months, exchanges of gunfire between security forces and militants and small-scale explosions have occurred, primarily in Bishnupur, Imphal West, Tengnoupal, Thoubal, and Kangpokpi districts.
Kuki militants typically target security personnel near police stations; such attacks usually result in localized curfews, security patrols, and related protests. Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, baton charges, and tear gas, to disperse any demonstrations that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, clashes, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings are possible. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.
Exercise a high degree of caution if operating in or near Manipur. Keep away from locations where security personnel appear to be deploying. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm business appointments, transport reservations, deliveries, and road status. Do not check out of accommodations before confirming onward travel. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Heed instructions from authorities.
Significant clashes initially erupted in Churachandpur District on May 3, 2023, during a rally by the All Tribal Students' Union of Manipur (ATSUM) as part of statewide demonstrations denouncing the government's proposal to award the majority nontribal Meitei group the Scheduled Tribes (ST) designation. The continuing violence has left around 200 people dead, tens of thousands of civilians otherwise affected, and at least 2,000 residences damaged. The central government and a faction of Manipur's oldest insurgent group, the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), reached a landmark peace agreement on Nov. 29. Although this accord holds the potential for easing some existing tensions, several other separatist organizations remain active in Manipur. The prevailing circumstances are unlikely to bring about a fundamental change in the current operational status quo.
Additionally, tensions are likely to escalate over the coming weeks following the Manipur Assembly's Feb. 29 resolution urging the central government to terminate the suspension of operations (SoO) pact with Kuki-Zo insurgent groups. The resolution signifies a shift in the government's approach that could lead to increased security measures, an escalation in ethnic tensions, and violence between different communities. Furthermore, the government has continued to use the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which was enacted on Sept. 11, 1958, to aid security forces in maintaining law and order in disturbed areas, particularly in Northeastern India. Currently, the AFSPA is implemented in the hilly districts of Manipur; meanwhile, the security situation in the Imphal Valley and surrounding areas has recently deteriorated.
