India: Unionized farmers likely to continue sporadic protest campaign in parts of country through at least late April

Unionized farmers will likely continue their sporadic protest campaign in parts of India through at least late April to demand various concessions, including long-standing grievances with existing agricultural policies. In recent months, activists have demonstrated at multiple locations, particularly in the National Capital Region (NCR) and northern regions, including Haryana, Punjab, and Rajasthan states. As of April 15, union leaders have threatened to hold a railway blockade (rail roko) along the Punjab and Haryana border areas and will reportedly commence an indefinite protest campaign if their demands remain unmet.

The upcoming general elections, slated to occur from April 19 to June 1, will likely exacerbate these protests in frequency and intensity. Further gatherings of varying types, including marches toward the NCR and railway blockades, are highly likely over the coming weeks. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Well-attended gatherings have previously drawn tens of thousands of participants.

Authorities will likely monitor any such gatherings and could use force, including baton charges and tear gas, to disperse unruly crowds. Officials may implement enhanced security restrictions based on operational needs, including temporary public movement and telecommunications measures. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of opposing sociopolitical groups, cannot be ruled out. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are likely.