Mozambique: Adverse weather forecast across southern provinces from April 5

Severe weather is forecast across the southern provinces of Mozambique from the evening of April 5; inclement weather or the impacts thereor could continue in the coming days. The National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued red and orange severe weather warnings (the highest and middle levels on a three-tier scale) for moderate-to-heavy rainfall with thunderstorms in the Gaza, Inhambane, and Maputo provinces. Forecasts suggest moderate to heavy rain of 30-50 mm (1.2-2 inches) over a 24-hour period, with localized heavier amounts expected in the region; these could be accompanied by thunderstorms and strong wind gusts. Winds of up to 60 km (37 miles) per hour are expected, which could generate waves of up to four meters (13 feet). This forecast is likely to evolve in the coming days.

The following areas in Gaza province are forecast to be affected: Massangena, Chicualacuala, Chigubo, Mabalane, Massingir, Guija, Chibuto, Chokwe, Manjacaze, Xai-Xai, Bilene, Chongoene, Limpopo, and Mapai. The following areas in Inhambane province are forecast to be affected: Funhalouro, Inharrime, Mabote, and Zavala. The following areas in Maputo province are forecast to be affected: Manhica, Marracuene, Boane, Magude, Matola, Matutuine, Moamba, and Namaacha.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.