Pakistan: Adverse weather forecast to persist across much of the country through at least April 22 /update 1

Adverse weather is forecast to continue across much of Pakistan through at least April 22. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms have affected many parts of the country in recent days. Authorities have reported at least 39 fatalities across Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab provinces, and dozens of others have been injured due to lightning strikes and other weather-related incidents. Around 85 homes have been damaged due to the severe weather in Lower Dir District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, and many rivers have broken their banks across the province. Power outages, damage to homes, and widespread flooding have also been reported in parts of Balochistan Province. Authorities have declared an urban flood emergency in the provincial capital Quetta. Many roads have been blocked by flooding and landslides across affected areas of the country.

As of April 15, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a press release warning of further rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms across much of the country over the coming days. The PMD has forecast rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds, with isolated heavy-to-very heavy downpours across parts of Balochistan Province late April 16-early April 19 and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province late April 17-21, with snowfall also possible in elevated areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds with snowfall in mountainous areas and isolated heavy downpours are likely over Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan administrative territories April 18-22. Rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds with isolated heavy downpours and hail are forecast over parts of Punjab Province and Islamabad Capital Territory April 18-22. Rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds are expected over parts of Sindh Province late April 17-early April 19.

The PMD has warned that heavy rainfall may generate flash flooding in parts of Balochistan Province April 17-18 and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan administrative territories April 18-20. Landslides are possible in elevated parts of northern Pakistan April 18-21. Strong winds, lightning, and hail may cause damage to crops, electricity infrastructure, and vehicles. Temperatures are likely to drop in many areas during the period of adverse weather.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations of northern Pakistan over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.