Pakistan: Adverse weather forecast to persist across much of the country through at least April 29 /update 3

Adverse weather is forecast to continue across much of Pakistan through at least April 29. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms have affected many parts of the country in recent days, causing flooding, damages, and casualties. Parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces have been worst affected. Authorities have reported at least 63 fatalities and 78 others injured across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in weather-related incidents as of April 21. More than 3,000 homes have been damaged across the province and more than 1,200 people have been displaced in Lower Chitral District. Provincial officials have declared a flood emergency in Lower Dir, Upper Dir, Swat, Upper Kohistan, Lower Kohistan, Kolai-Palas, Mohmand, Bajaur, Tank, Dera Ismail Khan, Lower Chitral, Upper Chitral, Khyber, Peshawar, and Charsadda districts through April 30. In Balochistan Province, officials have confirmed at least 15 weather-related fatalities and ten others injured. Around 345 homes and several bridges and roads have been damaged, with Chaghi and Chaman districts the worst affected. Rescue operations are ongoing in affected areas of the province. Authorities have declared an urban flood emergency in the provincial capital, Quetta. Many roads have been blocked by flooding and landslides across affected areas of the country.

After a brief period of calmer weather, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issued a press release April 22 warning of further rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms across much of the country from April 24. A weather system will enter western Pakistan April 24 before spreading across northern and central regions through April 26. The PMD has forecast rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds with isolated heavy downpours across parts of Balochistan Province late April 24-early April 27. Showers, storms, and strong winds with isolated heavy downpours and snowfall in elevated areas are expected over parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province late April 25-29 and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan administrative territories April 26-29. Rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds with isolated moderate-to-heavy downpours and hail are forecast over parts of Punjab Province and Islamabad Capital Territory April 26-early April 29. Light rainfall, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms are expected over parts of Sindh Province April 25-26.

The PMD has warned that heavy rainfall may generate flash flooding in parts of Balochistan Province April 26-27 and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and Kashmir Administrative Territory April 27-28. Landslides are possible in elevated parts of northern Pakistan April 27-29. Strong winds, lightning, and hail may cause damage to crops, electricity infrastructure, and vehicles. Temperatures are likely to drop in many areas during the period of adverse weather.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations of northern Pakistan over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.