Russia, Kazakhstan: Severe flooding ongoing across widespread parts of both countries as of April 18 /update 4

Severe flooding due to a combination of rainfall and meltwater runoff continues to bring disruptions to widespread areas across parts of Volga, Urals, and Siberia districts in Russia and central, northern, and western Kazakhstan as of April 18. Flooding has been a major concern in parts of the region since early April and is likely to continue to pose a threat through at least the rest of the month.

The worst of the flooding was initially concentrated around the Ural River and its tributaries, primarily in Orenburg Oblast and neighboring areas of northwestern Kazakhstan. In recent days the areas of main concern have shifted to the Ishim River in Tymen Oblast and the Tobolk River in Kurgan Oblast. Authorities have advised all residents of the town of Ishim, around 67,000 people, to evacuate due to the rising Ishim River; several other villages in the region have also been evacuated. Authorities have reported around 1,000 homes in the region have been submerged. Around 14,300 people have been evacuated across Kulgan Oblast due to the rising Tobol River. More than 2,000 homes and 3,000 other buildings have been flooded. Power outages have been reported in at least 25 settlements across Kurgan Oblast. More than 14.500 homes in Orenburg Oblast remain flooded as of April 18; however, the flood situation in the region is generally beginning to stabilize. States of emergency were declared in Orenburg Oblast April 4 and Kurgan, Tyumen, and parts of Tomsk oblasts April 8. Other flood-related disruptions, including evacuations of minor settlements and road closures, have been reported across other parts of the affected area in recent days.

As of April 18, the Hydrometcenter of Russia is maintaining orange flood warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) across Orenburg, Kurgan, Tyumen, Kemerovo, and Tomsk oblasts and Altai Krai. Yellow flood warnings are in place for central Krasnoyarsk Krai, the Republic of Bashkortostan, and the Republic of Mordovia. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Authorities in Kazakhstan have reported that more than 117,000 people have been evacuated from flood-affected areas across the country since the flooding began; however, at least 19,000 of these have since been able to return home. Authorities have confirmed at least seven flood-related fatalities. More than 6,000 homes remain submerged across Akmola, Aktobe, Atyrau, Kostanay, and North Kazakhstan regions as of April 18. More than 10,000 people have been evacuated in the city of Petropavl, North Kazakhstan Region, where many homes have been inundated by floodwaters. States of emergency have been declared in 38 districts across Akmola, Aktobe, Atyrau, North Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Kostanay, Ulytau, and West Kazakhstan regions. Generally, dry conditions are forecast across much of Kazakhstan over the coming days, with the exception of some isolated showers and storms in eastern, northern, and southeastern regions. However, warmer conditions may exacerbate snow melt and further flooding is also likely in areas bordering the most affected regions of Russia.

Further rainfall and meltwater runoff could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue additional evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that experience heavy rainfall and track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying and riverine areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites. Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or landslides, could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.