India: Farmers' ralllies likely to persist nationwide through at least late May /update 2

Unionized farmers will likely continue their ongoing protest campaigns across India through at least late May. The purpose of the action is to forward several demands, including the resolution of long-standing grievances over existing agricultural policies. In recent weeks, several demonstrations have taken place in multiple locations, including a rally by hundreds of Tamil Nadu-based farmers at New Delhi's Jantar Mantar observatory. Rail blockades in northern regions, such as Haryana and Punjab, have severely disrupted train services. As of May 6, rail service delays and cancellations are occurring in several major cities, including New Delhi. Farmers have threatened to continue protesting until their demands are met.

The upcoming general elections, slated to occur through June 1, will likely increase the frequency and intensity of these protests. Further gatherings of varying types, including marches to the National Capital Region (NCR) and railway blockades, are highly likely over the coming weeks. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Well-attended gatherings have previously drawn tens of thousands of participants.

Authorities will likely monitor any such gatherings and could use force, including baton charges and tear gas, to disperse unruly crowds. Officials may implement enhanced security restrictions based on operational needs, including temporary public movement and telecommunications measures. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of opposing sociopolitical groups, cannot be ruled out. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are likely.