02 May 2024 | 11:46 AM UTC
Mozambique: Militant threat likely to remain elevated in northern provinces through at least late May /update 8
Militant threat likely to remain elevated in Mozambique's northern provinces through at least late May; recent attack reported in Nampula.
The militant threat in Mozambique's northern provinces will remain elevated at least through the end of May; recent weeks have seen notable increases in activity, culminating in the first attack in Nampula province in over a year. The Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ) Islamist militant group reportedly crossed the Lurio River and attacked Christian villages in the district of Erati in Nampula on April 25, burning houses, schools, and churches and killing at least one local.
Until this attack, militant movements had been contained to Cabo Delgado Province, with none reported in neighboring Niassa and Nampula since 2022. While attacks had subsided in 2023, reports of attacks have remarkably increased in early 2024. Activity has been reported in the Chiure, Quissinga, Quirimba island, Macomia, Mecufi, Meluco, Metuge, and Mocimboa da Praia districts. Militants had appeared to be trekking southward, going as far as Mazeze near Pemba. Their presence has led to a new wave of civilian refugees, with sources reporting over 100,000 displaced locals in recent weeks. Militant activity has also prevented authorities from providing food, as well as administrative, social, and health services.
Violent attacks on major infrastructure and urban areas could increase on short notice, especially following the end of the month of Ramadan. Authorities will undoubtedly maintain an increased security posture in the affected areas of Cabo Delgado and may erect roadblocks or restrict access on some roads. Security-related operations could result in localized ground transport disruptions. Increased vehicle checks are also likely on roads leading to and from larger urban centers. The military presence will continue for the duration of the threat.
Consider deferring nonessential travel to Cabo Delgado until government forces manage to stabilize the security landscape. Proceed with extreme caution when traveling in the Niassa and Nampula provinces. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Liaise with trusted security partners for further information. Travel in convoy after a full security review of the route and avoid all travel after dark. Review and update contingency plans. Carry personal identification documents. Heed all security personnel instructions.
Mozambique's northern provinces, particularly Cabo Delgado, have been subject to a continuous Islamist insurgency since October 2017. The attacks appear to have been initially motivated by an international Islamist agenda, with ASWJ pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), which had reportedly provided weapons, funding, and training to the militants. Attacks peaked in 2022, spreading to Nampula and Niassa provinces and targeting military, industrial, and civilian complexes. The insurgency has reportedly killed around 6,800 people and displaced about one million others since it began.
Through 2023, reports of ASWJ attacks significantly decreased. Attacks were limited to Cabo Delgado after Cyclone Freddy hit northern Mozambique twice in March 2023, likely forcing the militants to halt their activities; attacks further subsided after the month of Ramadan in April 2023. Foreign military assistance has also coincided with a decline in attacks. This assistance began with the deployment of some 1,900 soldiers from the Southern African Development Community's (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) in July 2021 and an additional 2,800 soldiers from the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) in December 2022. Combined, the SAMIM, RDF, and Mozambique Armed Defense Forces (FADM) have been able to secure major highways and ports and force militants to retreat further into the forests.
However, the militants have proven resilient, adopting guerilla tactics and jeopardizing ground travel routes, especially around Mocimboa da Praia and Macomia. ASWJ claims to defend the local rural population against the central government and its allies in a large-scale recruitment campaign dubbed "hearts and minds" amongst rural populations. The campaign has provided the group with a measure of favor, now proving capable of retaining control of small villages. While not controlling large areas, militants have, for the first time in 2023, demonstrated the ability to use remote-controlled improvised explosive devices (IEDs), posing a permanent threat to overland travel. In addition, though ASWJ's modus operandi does not typically threaten foreign nationals - typically attacking local militias, security forces, and remote towns through road ambushes and armed assaults - assaults against mining operations have sporadically occurred. The latest attack threatening foreigners occurred in February 2023 in the village of Nairoto in Cabo Delgado Province, prompting the precautionary evacuation of personnel from the nearby mining camp of Nairoto Resources Limitada.
As of early 2024, ASWJ's presence continues to destabilize Cabo Delgado Province, preventing humanitarian assistance from reaching displaced populations, compromising foreign investment, and complicating governance. The surge in attacks in early 2024 has forced foreign aid programs to decrease their presence in the province. Foreign investors are considering resuming drilling operations off the coast after pausing efforts in 2021, with a view to exporting gas from the northern port of Palma as soon as 2024 should its reconstruction proceed uninterrupted. While ASWJ has not demonstrated capabilities for attacks at sea, its capacity to raid convoys or attack ore, oil, and gas mining compounds could be cause for concern that it might acquire the means to threaten maritime transport in the near future.
Various foreign governments are maintaining travel advisories against travel to Cabo Delgado and restricting travel in certain areas of Niassa and Nampula.
