Russia, Kazakhstan: Disruptions due to flooding ongoing across parts of both countries as of May 17 /update 6

Severe flooding due to a combination of rainfall and meltwater runoff continues to bring disruptions to areas across parts of central and southern Russia and parts of western Kazakhstan as of May 17. Flooding has been a major concern in parts of the region since early April and is likely to continue to pose a threat through much of May.

The worst of the flooding was initially concentrated around the Ural River and its tributaries during early April, primarily in Orenburg Oblast and neighboring areas of northwestern Kazakhstan. During mid-April, the focus shifted to Kurgan Oblast in the Urals District. Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated from affected areas, and thousands of homes were submerged amid widespread flooding; however, many people have since been able to return home as floodwaters have begun to recede. In early May, the areas of main concern were the Ishim and Tobol rivers in Tyumen Oblast, and currently, the main threat of flooding is occurring along the Tobol and Irtysh rivers in Tyumen Oblast, the Irtysh and Ishim rivers in Omsk Oblast, and Lena River in Sakha Republic. Authorities have evacuated around 2,000 people from the Ust-Ishimsky District in Omsk Oblast and hundreds of homes have been flooded in the region. Several other rivers across the region are at dangerously high levels; around 3,000 homes, hundreds of roads, and dozens of bridges remain flooded across 13 regions of Russia as of mid-May. Authorities have warned that the threat of flooding due to snow melt and precipitation will likely continue over the coming weeks. States of emergency were declared in Orenburg Oblast April 4, Kurgan, Tyumen, and parts of Tomsk oblasts April 8, and parts of the Sakha Republic May 13.

As of May 17, the Hydrometcenter of Russia is maintaining orange flood warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for Omsk and Tyumen oblasts and orange rain-flood warnings for Tomsk Oblast and central Krasnoyarsk Krai. Yellow flood warnings have been issued for the central Sakha Republic. Yellow heavy rain warnings are in place for Omsk Oblast and yellow thunderstorm warnings for Omsk and Tyumen oblasts; heavy downpours could exacerbate the flood situation in these regions. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Authorities in Kazakhstan have reported that more than 119,000 people have been evacuated from flood-affected areas across the country since the flooding began; however, tens of thousands have since been able to return home as the floodwaters have receded in most areas, and as of May 17, around 5,433 people remain in evacuation centers across the affected areas. The threat of flooding is still ongoing in parts of Atyrau and North Kazakhstan regions due to rising river levels. Authorities have confirmed at least seven flood-related fatalities. States of emergency have been declared in 38 districts across Akmola, Aktobe, Atyrau, North Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Kostanay, Ulytau, and West Kazakhstan regions. Adverse weather is forecast across parts of the country over the coming days, which could exacerbate the flood situation. As of May 17, orange and yellow heavy rainfall warnings (the middle and lowest levels on a three-tier scale) have been issued across parts of central and southern Kazakhstan and yellow thunderstorm warnings are in place across parts of central, southern, and western Kazakhstan.

Further rainfall and meltwater runoff could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue additional evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that experience heavy rainfall and track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying and riverine areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites. Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or landslides, could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.