Russia, Kazakhstan: Severe flooding ongoing across widespread parts of both countries as of May 1 /update 5

Severe flooding due to a combination of rainfall and meltwater runoff continues to bring disruptions to widespread areas across parts of the Urals and Siberia districts in Russia and many parts of Kazakhstan as of May 1. Flooding has been a major concern in parts of the region since early April and is likely to continue to pose a threat through much of May.

The worst of the flooding was initially concentrated around the Ural River and its tributaries during early April, primarily in Orenburg Oblast and neighboring areas of northwestern Kazakhstan, and during mid-April, the focus shifted to Kurgan Oblast in the Urals District. Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated from affected areas, and thousands of homes were submerged amid widespread flooding; however, many people have since been able to return home as floodwaters have begun to recede. In recent days, the areas of main concern have been the Ishim and Tobol rivers in Tyumen Oblast. Both rivers continue to rise and the peak of the flooding is expected around May 8-9. Authorities have evacuated dozens of settlements in the region over recent days and as of May 1 more than 5,700 residents remain displaced. The River Ob also continues to rise in Tomsk Oblast and several other rivers across the region are at dangerously high levels; authorities have warned that the threat of flooding due to snow melt and precipitation will likely continue over the coming weeks. States of emergency were declared in Orenburg Oblast April 4 and Kurgan, Tyumen, and parts of Tomsk oblasts April 8.

As of May 1, the Hydrometcenter of Russia is maintaining orange flood warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) across Tyumen and Tomsk oblasts. Yellow flood warnings are in place for Irkutsk Oblast and central Krasnoyarsk Krai. Yellow heavy rain warnings have been issued for Altai Krai, Altai Republic, Chelyabinsk Oblast, Irkutsk Oblast, and Tomsk Oblast; heavy downpours could exacerbate the flood situation in these regions. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Authorities in Kazakhstan have reported that more than 119,000 people have been evacuated from flood-affected areas across the country since the flooding began; however, tens of thousands have since been able to return home, and as of May 1, around 6,500 people remain in evacuation centers across the affected areas. Authorities have confirmed at least seven flood-related fatalities. Aktobe, Atyrau, and North Kazakhstan have been amongst the worst affected areas. States of emergency have been declared in 38 districts across Akmola, Aktobe, Atyrau, North Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Kostanay, Ulytau, and West Kazakhstan regions. Although floodwaters have started to recede in many areas, adverse weather is forecast across much of the country over the coming days, which could exacerbate the flood situation. Orange and yellow weather warnings (the middle and lowest levels on a three-tier scale) for heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds are in place across much of the country May 1, and authorities have warned that storms across Almaty, Jambyl, and Jetisu regions May 1-3 could trigger flooding in southern parts of the country.

Further rainfall and meltwater runoff could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue additional evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that experience heavy rainfall and track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying and riverine areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites. Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or landslides, could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.