India: Heightened tensions almost certain to persist in Manipur through at least early July /update 25

Increased security, protests, and related recurring disruptions are almost certain to persist in Manipur through at least early July due to ongoing ethnic tensions, primarily between the Kuki and Meitei communities. The associated violence, which began in May 2023, has left approximately 200 people killed and 1,100 others wounded. As of June 18, hundreds of Kuki activists are holding an indefinite blockade along parts of National Highway 37 in the Jiribam and Tamenglong districts. The action has resulted in significant disruptions to cargo delivery and vehicular movement between Imphal and other parts of the state. The government has deployed security personnel to secure the passage of affected vehicles. Prolonged road blockades have previously affected the distribution of essential goods, such as fuel and foodstuffs, to the state, especially to and from the Imphal Valley.

Additionally, activists continue to stage sporadic diverse gatherings, including shutdown strikes (bandh) and road blockades, across the state. Kuki- and Meitei-based organizations typically stage the most disruptive strikes. Typical rally sites include residences of local politicians and security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings often draw thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly continue to maintain an increased security presence across the state for the foreseeable future. Further internet and mobile data service suspensions and other enhanced restrictions, such as curfews, depending on evolving operational needs. Further security incidents remain possible. In recent months, exchanges of gunfire between security forces and militants and small-scale explosions have occurred, primarily in Bishnupur, Imphal West, Tengnoupal, Thoubal, and Kangpokpi districts.

Kuki militants typically target security personnel near police stations; such attacks usually result in localized curfews, security patrols, and related protests. Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, baton charges, and tear gas, to disperse any demonstrations that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, clashes, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings are possible. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.