Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across much of the country through at least June 20 /update 2

Adverse weather is forecast across much of Mexico through at least June 20. Two low-pressure areas with a potential for cyclonic development, one in the Gulf of Mexico and another over southeastern Mexico, are expected to bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to southern regions over the coming days. A combination of meteorological factors will also lead to showers and storms over central, eastern, northern, and western regions. Strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail are possible during storms. Strong winds may generate whirlwinds in northern regions, dust storms in arid parts of central and northern Mexico, and waterspouts and rough seas in southern coastal areas. High temperatures are expected to persist in many areas June 17 and in northern, northwestern, and western regions June 18-20. Maximums of over 45 C (113 F) are possible in parts of Sinaloa and Sonora states June 20.

Rainfall totals of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are forecast over Chiapas State June 17-18, Coahuila and Nuevo Leon June 19-20, and Tamaulipas June 19. Totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are expected in parts of Veracruz June 17-20, Campeche, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan June 17-18, Tabasco June 17, Puebla June 18-20, Tamaulipas June 18, Chiapas, Hidalgo, and San Luis Potosi June 19-20, and Guerrero, Michoacan, Oaxaca, Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas June 20. Totals of 5-7.5 cm (2-3 inches) are forecast in parts of Tabasco June 18, Queretaro June 19-20, Oaxaca June 19, and Chihuahua, Durango, and Quintana Roo June 20. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Pacific coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.