Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Beryl tracking north-northwestward toward Texas late July 7 /update 15

Tropical Storm Beryl is tracking north-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico late July 7. As of 16:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 220 km (135 miles) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks north-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico late July 7 before making landfall over Texas between Corpus Christi Bay and Galveston Bay early July 8. After making landfall, Beryl is forecast to rapidly weaken into a tropical storm and then a tropical depression as it tracks north-northeastward across southern and eastern Texas on July 8 and early July 9. The system is subsequently forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone and track northeastward across Arkansas, far southeastern Missouri, far southern Illinois, Indiana, and northwestern Ohio through July 10. By the afternoon of July 11, the remnant low will have likely continued to move northeastward into southern Ontario, and the system will likely dissipate by July 12. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of late July 7, authorities had issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass.
• Hurricane Watch: The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio

  Grande, as well as the Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass.

• Storm Surge Warning: North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are likely in the hurricane warning area and are possible in the hurricane watch area by early July 8. Tropical storm conditions are forecast in the hurricane warning and watch areas and in the tropical storm warning areas in southern Texas over the coming hours as well as along the upper Texas coast early July 8. Beryl will probably produce rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches), with localized amounts of 38 cm (15 inches), across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas through late July 8. Considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as minor to isolated major river flooding, is likely. A few tornadoes may materialize along the middle and upper Texas coast through July 7 and across eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas on July 8.

Storm surge could raise water levels on the Texas coast by 1.2-2.1 meters (4-7 feet) in areas of onshore winds from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass as well as Matagorda Bay, by 1.2-1.8 meters (4-6 feet) from San Luis Pass to High Island as well as Galveston Bay, and by 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) from Mesquite Bay to Port O'Connor as well as from High Island to Sabine Pass. Swells generated by Beryl will probably affect eastern Mexico and much of the US Gulf Coast over the coming days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Authorities in Texas have placed 121 counties under the state's Hurricane Beryl Disaster Declaration ahead of the storm's arrival. Officials in Corpus Christi have declared a local state of disaster. Refugio County has issued a mandatory evacuation order for all residents, affecting more than 6,600 people; the county plans to shut down its water supply in connection with the storm, and hospitals will redirect patients elsewhere. Refugio County also plans to provide buses to transport individuals who would otherwise be unable to evacuate to emergency shelters located outside of the county. Several other counties along Texas' coast have also issued mandatory or voluntary evacuation instructions, including Aransas, Brazoria, Matagorda, and Nueces counties, particularly for those in low-lying and flood-prone areas. Notably, Nueces County has ordered the mandatory evacuation of visitors in the Port Aransas area, while the Village of Surfside Beach in Brazoria County has issued a mandatory evacuation order for all recreational vehicles and watercraft. The City of Galveston has announced that all city facilities will be closed on July 8, and only essential personnel will report to work.

Port authorities have restricted all vessel movement and cargo operations from the Colorado Locks to the US-Mexico border. Ports along the Texas coast are closed, including the Port of Corpus Christi. Flight disruptions will likely affect airports across the region during the passing of the storm. Widespread electricity disruptions are also likely as Beryl passes through Texas; as of late July 7, more than 14,000 people across the state were without power. Additionally, some multinational oil and gas companies have shut down production in parts of the Gulf of Mexico as a precaution.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, additional evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger further business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.