India: Heightened tensions likely to persist in Manipur through at least early August /update 26

Increased security, protests, and related disruptions will very likely persist in Manipur through at least early August due to ongoing ethnic tensions, primarily between the Kuki and Meitei communities. The associated violence, which began in May 2023, has left approximately 200 people dead and 1,100 others wounded. Isolated gunfire and other security incidents continue to occur in various locations, with security forces having detained about 500 people in connection with the ongoing violence.

Activists continue to stage sporadic gatherings across the state, including shutdown strikes (bandh) and roadblocks. Such actions have significantly disrupted cargo delivery and vehicular movement between Imphal and other parts of Manipur. Prolonged roadblocks have also been known to affect the transport of essential goods, such as fuel and foodstuffs, especially to and from the Imphal Valley. Kuki- and Meitei-based organizations typically stage the most disruptive strikes. Typical rally sites include residences of local politicians and security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings often draw thousands of participants.

In recent months, exchanges of gunfire between security forces and militants and small-scale explosions have occurred, primarily in Bishnupur, Imphal West, Tengnoupal, Thoubal, and Kangpokpi districts. Kuki militants typically target security personnel near police stations.

Authorities will almost certainly continue to maintain an increased security presence across Manipur for the foreseeable future, potentially imposing further internet and mobile communications suspensions, as well as other restrictions, such as curfews, depending on changing operational needs. Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, baton charges, and tear gas, to disperse any demonstrations that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, clashes, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings are possible. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.