Philippine Sea: Typhoon Gaemi tracking north-northwestward in the Philippine Sea late July 23 /update 4

Typhoon Gaemi, known in the Philippines as Carina, is tracking north-northwestward over the Philippine Sea late July 23. As of 20:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 469 km (291 miles) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen as it continues to track north-northwestward late July 23-early July 24 and passes around 100 km (62 miles) west of Japan's Yaeyama Islands, Okinawa Prefecture, during the morning July 24. Gaemi is then forecast to track northwestward and make landfall over Yilan County in northeastern Taiwan as a strong typhoon late July 24. The system will likely weaken slightly over land but remain at typhoon strength as it moves into the Taiwan Strait early July 25. The system will weaken further before making another landfall as a weak typhoon over Fujian Province, China, during the early afternoon July 25. After landfall, Gaemi is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks north-northwestward over Fujian Province late July 25-26 before weakening further into a tropical depression and then dissipating as it moves over Jiangxi Province late July 26-27 and into southeastern Hubei Province late July 27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late July 23, the Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued red typhoon warnings across most of Taiwan, with the exception of western island regions. A red extremely heavy rain advisory (the second highest level on a three-tier scale) has been issued over mountainous areas of Yilan County and orange and yellow heavy rain advisories and strong wind advisories have been issued across much of Taiwan. Swell warnings have been issued in some northeastern coastal areas.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin warning of rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern mainland Cagayan, and Ilocos Sur provinces July 23-24 and across Batanes Province July 24-25. Lesser rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast across other parts of the northeastern Philippines July 23-24 and the Babuyan Islands July 24-25. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 is in place over Batanes Province, while Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 is in effect over Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, eastern Isabela, northern Apayao, and northern Ilocos Norte provinces.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a weather bulletin warning of winds gusting up to 234 kph (145 mph), daily rainfall totals of up to 20 cm (8 inches), and waves up to 12 meters (39 feet) across parts of Okinawa Prefecture July 23-25. The JMA has issued purple storm surge warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Ishigakijima Region in Okinawa Prefecture, red storm/gale warnings for Ishigakijima and Yonagunijima regions, and red high wave warnings across much of Okinawa Prefecture. Yellow storm/gale, high wave, storm surge, and thunderstorm warnings have been issued across most of Okinawa Prefecture not under higher levels of warning.

Authorities in Taiwan suspended all ferry services connecting Taitung and Green, Orchid, and Xiaoliuqiu islands July 23-25. Train services between Alishan and Chiayi stations will be suspended from July 23, while services within the Alishan Recreation Area will be suspended July 24-25. Taiwan suspended parts of its annual Han Kuang war games in advance of the storm. Financial markets and schools will be closed July 24 in Taipei and the neighboring cities of New Taipei, Keelung, and Taoyuan. Mandarin Airlines (AE) and Daily Air (DA) have suspended all domestic flights on July 24, and Eva Air (BR) has announced the cancelation of at least 12 international flights.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.