South Africa: Adverse weather forecast to continue across south-central and western regions through at least July 13 /update 1

Severe weather is forecast to continue across parts of south-central and western South Africa through at least July 13. A succession of cold fronts has brought strong winds and heavy rainfall across the region in recent days, as well as cold temperatures and snowfall in mountainous regions. The severe weather has led to flooding and associated disruptions across parts of the region, with Cape Town and surrounding areas of Western Cape Province the worst affected. Further adverse weather will likely exacerbate the flood situation and hamper ongoing response and recovery efforts.

The South African Weather Service has issued the following weather warnings across the affected area July 10:

• Orange level 5 (out of 10) disruptive snow warnings: Parts of northeastern Eastern Cape Province.

• Yellow level 4 disruptive rain warnings: Parts of northwestern and western Western Cape Province.

• Yellow level 4 damaging wind warnings: Parts of southern Northern Cape and much of central, eastern, southern, and western Western Cape provinces.

• Yellow level 4 damaging wave warnings: Across the coast of the Western Cape Province and far western coastal areas of the Eastern Cape Province.

• Yellow level 2 damaging wind warnings: Parts of southwestern Free State and southern and southeastern Northern Cape and most inland areas of the Eastern Cape Province,

Further orange and yellow warnings are in place over the coming days, including Orange Level 8 Disruptive Rain warnings for Cape Town and surrounding parts of the Western Cape July 11. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Severe weather has been causing widespread disruptions across parts of the affected area in recent days. Damage and flooding have been reported in parts of Cape Town and surrounding areas. Around 1,000 homes have been damaged and 4,000 people displaced in the Khayelitsha township, and around 14,000 structures have been damaged across the City of Cape Town. Evacuation orders have been issued in parts of Citrusdal and the Cape Winelands. Some areas have been cut off by flooding, and around 11,000 customers are without power across the Western Cape Province. Many roads across parts of the Western Cape have been closed due to flooding, and some routes in mountainous regions of both Eastern and Western Cape provinces have been blocked by snowfall. Further severe weather in the coming days will likely cause further disruptions to the road network in the region; the latest information on the status of roads can be found here. Disruptions to operations have been reported at ports in the region, including the ports of Cape Town, Saldanha, Port Elizabeth, and Ngqura. Many school districts across the Western Cape will be closed July 11 due to the anticipated heavy rainfall in the region.

Further sustained heavy rainfall could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected area. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.