Taiwan: Typhoon Gaemi tracking southwestward off the coast of Hualien County late July 24 /update 6

Typhoon Gaemi, known in the Philippines as Carina, is tracking southwestward and approaching Taiwan late July 24. As of 20:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 157 km (98 miles) south of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make landfall over Hualien County in the coming hours and track northwestward over north-central Taiwan late July 24-early July 25. The system will likely weaken over land but remain at typhoon strength as it moves into the Taiwan Strait early July 25. Gaemi will weaken further before making another landfall as a weak typhoon over Fujian Province, China, late afternoon or early evening July 25. After landfall, Gaemi is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward over Fujian and Jiangxi provinces through early July 27 before weakening further into a tropical depression and then dissipating as it moves over Hubei Province July 27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late July 24, the Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued red typhoon warnings across Taiwan. A purple extremely torrential rain advisory (the highest level on a four-tier scale) has been issued over much of central and southern Taiwan and red, orange, and yellow heavy rain advisories across the rest of Taiwan. Strong wind advisories have been issued across all coastal areas of Taiwan.

The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has issued a red typhoon warning (the highest level on a three-tier scale) advising strong winds are expected in seas off the southeastern coast and in coastal areas of Fujian and southern Zhejiang provinces. Heavy-to-torrential rainfall is expected over most of Fujian and southeastern Zhejiang provinces.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a weather bulletin warning of winds gusting up to 126 kph (78 mph), daily rainfall totals of up to 15 cm (6 inches), and waves up to 9 meters (30 feet) across parts of Okinawa Prefecture July 25. The JMA has issued red heavy rainfall and flood warnings (the second highest level on a three-tier scale) for Ishigakijima Region in Okinawa Prefecture, red strong wind warnings for Yonagunijima Region, and red high wave warnings across much of Okinawa Prefecture. Yellow heavy rainfall/landslide and storm surge warnings are in place for Ishigakijima and Yonagunijima, yellow flood warnings for Yonagunijima Region, and yellow heavy rainfall/flood warnings for Miyakojima Region. Yellow strong winds, thunderstorm, and high wave warnings are in place across all of Okinawa not under higher levels of warning.

Authorities in Taiwan have reported two weather-related fatalities and more than 200 others injured as the storm approached July 24. Officials have evacuated more than 8,000 people across at-risk areas of the country. All domestic flights and hundreds of international flights have been canceled July 24-25. Authorities have suspended all ferry services connecting Taitung and Green, Orchid, and Xiaoliuqiu islands July 23-25. Train services between Alishan and Chiayi stations have been suspended from July 23, while services within the Alishan Recreation Area have been halted July 24-25. Taiwan suspended parts of its annual Han Kuang war games in advance of the storm. Financial markets, schools, and offices have been closed July 24 across most of Taiwan.

Authorities in Fujian Province in mainland China have suspended several train services July 25 ahead of the storm's approach. The Fujian Maritime Safety Administration has launched a Level I emergency response, the highest alert, in anticipation of Gaemi’s arrival. Ports have been closed and vessels have been ordered to return to shore.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.