Ukraine: Adverse weather forecast across western regions through at least July 5

Adverse weather is forecast over much of western Ukraine through at least July 5. Heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are forecast across the region July 3 and further showers and storms are expected July 4-5. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has issued orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) across Chernivtsi Oblast, and yellow heavy rainfall warnings are in place across Khmelnytskyy, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Yellow thunderstorm, hail, and squally wind warnings are in place across the affected area. Yellow and green hydrological warnings (the second lowest and lowest levels on a fiver-tier scale) for increasing river levels are in place for various river catchments across the affected area. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the region. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in affected areas.