US: Tropical Storm Beryl moving northeast near Texas-Louisiana border July 8 /update 17

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving northeast near the Texas-Lousiana border July 8. As of 16:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was located over the Davy Crockett National Forest, approximately 180 km (110 miles) north of Houston, Texas

Forecast models indicate that the system will continue to weaken as it moves into southeastern Arkansas, becoming a tropical depression by the early morning hours of July 9 and transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone by the afternoon of July 9. The remnant low is expected to track northeastward into southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, southern and central Indiana, and into northwestern Ohio and southeastern Michigan July 9-10. The remnants of the storm will then likely enter southeastern Ontario, Canada, July 11. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of midday July 8, authorities had issued the following watches and warnings:

• Tropical Storm Warning: The Texas coast north of Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass.
• Storm Surge Warning: North of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), tropical storm conditions will spread across the tropical storm warning area July 8. Beryl will probably produce rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with localized amounts of 30 cm (30 inches), across portions of the eastern Texas through late July 8. Considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as minor to isolated major river flooding, is likely. Rainfall totals of 7.5-12.5 cm (3-5 inches) with localized heavier amounts are expected across parts of far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri July 8-9. Several tornadoes may materialize east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas July 8, with additional tornadoes possible in southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio July 9. Tornado warnings and watches have been issued in east Texas and western Louisiana July 8.

Storm surge could raise water levels on the Texas coast by 1-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) in areas of onshore winds from San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass and Galveston Bay. Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the US Gulf Coast over the coming days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Authorities in Texas have placed 121 counties under the state's Hurricane Beryl Disaster Declaration in response to the tropical cyclone, and authorities may prevent the return of people who were evacuated prior to its making landfall until inspections and infrastructure can be repaired. School systems and government offices across many of areas, including Houston, remain closed through July 8; such closures may be extended in the following days.

Port authorities restricted all vessel movement and cargo operations from the Colorado Locks to the US-Mexico border and closed ports along the Texas coast, including those in Corpus Christi, Galveston, and Houston. Lingering delays at ports are likely even after authorities reopen them. Hundreds of flights have been canceled and delayed at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) in Houston and other airports in the region; further flight disruptions will likely affect airports across the region during the passing of the storm. Widespread electricity disruptions are also likely as Beryl passes through Texas; as of the early afternoon of July 8, more than 2.7 million people across the state were without power. Additionally, some multinational oil and gas companies have shut down production in parts of the Gulf of Mexico as a precaution.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, additional evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger further business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.