Cuba: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four tracking west-northwestward over central Cuba as of late Aug. 2 /update 1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is tracking west-northwestward over central Cuba late Aug. 2. As of 23:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 125 km (75 miles) south of Caibarien, Cuba.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen as it moves northwestward over Cuba and into the Florida Straits through early Aug. 3. The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm as it makes a close approach to the Florida Keys late Aug. 3 and will continue to strengthen as it tracks northward and then north-northeastward off the western Florida coast late Aug. 3-4. The system is currently forecast to cross the western Florida coast near Jena early Aug. 5. It will retain tropical storm strength as it tracks northeastward across northern Florida before exiting into the Atlantic over far eastern Georgia late Aug. 6. The storm is expected to strengthen slightly as it tracks generally northeastward parallel to the southeast coast of South Carolina through late Aug. 7. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Aug. 2, officials have issued the following watches and warnings:

Tropical Storm Warnings

• The Dry Tortugas

• The west coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande

Tropical Storm Watches

• The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge

• The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge

• The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to

• the mouth of the Suwannee River

Storm Surge Watch

• Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area and are possible in the watch areas from late Aug. 3. Rainfall of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) is possible across Cuba through Aug. 3. The system is expected to generate rainfall totals of up to 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with localized maximum amounts of 30 cm (12 inches), over parts of Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern US coast Aug. 3-7. These rains could result in flash, urban, and riverine flooding in affected areas.

Storm surge is possible along parts of the affected Florida coast, with peak surges at high tide reaching 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, as well as Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbour. A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula late Aug. 3-early Aug. 4.

Florida authorities declared a state of emergency for 54 of the state's 67 counties before the storm due to possible significant flooding.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect—and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.