Cuba: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four tracking west-northwestward over eastern Cuba as of Aug. 2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is tracking west-northwestward over eastern Cuba Aug. 2. As of 11:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 145 km (90 miles) east-southeast of Camaguey, Cuba.

Forecast models indicate that the system will develop into a tropical depression as it moves northwestward over Cuba and into the Florida Straits through early Aug. 3. The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm as it passes over the Florida Keys Aug. 3 and will continue to strengthen as it tracks northward and then north-northeastward off the western Florida coast late Aug. 3-4. The system is currently forecast to cross the western Florida coast near Inglis late afternoon or early evening Aug. 4. It will retain tropical storm strength as it tracks northeastward across northern Florida before exiting into the Atlantic over far southeastern Georgia early Aug. 5. The storm is expected to maintain strength as it tracks generally northeastward parallel to the southeast coast of the US Aug. 5-7. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of Aug. 2, officials have issued the following watches and warnings:

Tropical Storm Warning

• Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach

Tropical Storm Watches

• The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas

• The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge

• The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area and are possible in the watch areas from late Aug. 3. The system is expected to generate rainfall totals of up to 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with localized maximum amounts of 30 cm (12 inches), over parts of Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern US Aug. 3-7. These rains could result in flash, urban, and riverine flooding in affected areas. Storm surge is possible along parts of the affected Florida coast, with peak surges at high tide reaching 0.3-0.9 meters from Aripeka to Card Sound Bridge, as well as Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbour.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.