Cuba: Tropical Depression Four tracking west-northwestward over western Cuba as of Aug. 3 /update 2

Tropical Depression Four is tracking west-northwestward over western Cuba Aug. 3. As of 11:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 60 km (40 miles) southeast of Havana, Cuba.

Forecast models indicate that the system will remain a tropical depression as it moves northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and passes west of the Florida Keys late Aug. 3. The storm is then expected to strengthen into a tropical storm, upon which it will be named Debby, as it tracks north-northwestward and then north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Aug. 4, before making landfall as a strong tropical storm over the Florida Gulf coast southwest of Perry early Aug. 5. The system is forecast to weaken but remain a tropical storm as it tracks northeastward into southern Georgia Aug. 5-early Aug. 6, before turning eastward and moving into the Atlantic off the coast of Georgia late Aug. 6. The system is then expected to strengthen as it turns to track northeastward and approaches the South Carolina coast Aug.7-8. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of Aug. 3, officials have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Watch

• Indian Pass to Yankeetown

Tropical Storm Warnings

• The Dry Tortugas

• The west coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown to East Cape Sable

Tropical Storm Watches

• The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge

Storm Surge Warning

• Aripeka northward to the Aucilla River

Storm Surge Watch

• Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

• West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by late Aug. 4, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier Aug. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning area from late Aug. 3 through Aug. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys late Aug. 3 and in the Florida Panhandle by late Aug. 4. Rainfall totals of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) are possible across parts of Cuba through Aug. 3. The system is expected to generate rainfall totals of up to 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches), with localized maximum amounts of 38 cm (15 inches), over parts of Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern US coast Aug. 3-8. These rains could result in flash, urban, and riverine flooding in affected areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula late Aug. 3-early Aug. 4.

Storm surge is possible along parts of the affected Florida coast, with peak surges at high tide reaching 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) from Aripeka to Aucilla River and 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from Aucilla River to Indian Pass, Bonita Beach to Aripeka, Tampa Bay, and Charlotte Harbor. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida from late Aug. 3 through Aug. 5 and along the southeast US coast Aug. 5-7. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Florida authorities declared a state of emergency for 54 of the state's 67 counties before the storm due to possible significant flooding.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect—and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.