Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Debby tracking northwestward over eastern Gulf of Mexico as of late Aug. 3 /update 3

Tropical Storm Debby is tracking northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Aug. 3. As of 23:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 80 km (50 miles) west-southwest of Dry Tortugas, Florida.

Forecast models indicate that the system will pass west of the Florida Keys late Aug. 3. The storm is then expected to strengthen into a category 1 hurricane as it tracks northward and then north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall over the Florida Gulf coast south of Perry early Aug. 5. The system is forecast to weaken but remain a tropical storm as it tracks northeastward into southern Georgia Aug. 5-early Aug. 6, before turning eastward and moving into the Atlantic off the coast of Georgia late Aug. 6. The system is then expected to strengthen as it turns to track northward and make another landfall over South Carolina early Aug. 8. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Aug. 3, officials have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

Hurricane Watch

• Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

• Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

Tropical Storm Warnings

• The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge, including the Dry Tortugas

• Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable

• Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass

Tropical Storm Watches

• The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge

• Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

Storm Surge Warning

• Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

Storm Surge Watch

• Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including

• Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas Aug. 5, with tropical storm conditions expected late Aug. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas late Aug. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys late Aug. 3 and in the Florida Panhandle late Aug. 5.

Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are possible across parts of Cuba through Aug. 3. The system is expected to generate rainfall totals of up to 15-30 cm (6-12 inches), with localized maximum amounts of 45 cm (18 inches), over parts of Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern US coast Aug. 3-8. These rains could result in flash, urban, and riverine flooding in affected areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible across the Florida Keys and the southern and western Florida Peninsula late Aug. 3 and expanding across much of northern and central Florida Aug. 4.

Storm surge is possible along parts of the affected Florida coast, with peak surges at high tide reaching 1.8-3 meters (6-10 feet) from Suwannee River to Aucilla River, 1.2-2.1 meters (4-7 feet) from Yankeetown to Suwannee River, and 1.2-1.8 meters (4-6 feet) from Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect much of Florida's Gulf coast late Aug. 3-5 and along the southeast US coast Aug. 5-7. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Florida authorities declared a state of emergency for 54 of the state's 67 counties before the storm due to possible significant flooding. Citrus County issued a mandatory evacuation for zone A, covering the City of Crystal River, the areas west of US 19, and some low-lying areas east of US 19 in Citrus. Voluntary evacuations are in place for residents in mobile homes and low-lying and flood-prone areas in Hernando, Manatee, and Pasco counties. Flight delays and cancellations at airports across Florida are likely from Aug. 3.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect—and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.