Japan: Typhoon Ampil tracking northward toward eastern Japan as of early Aug. 16 /update 3

Typhoon Ampil is tracking northward in the western Pacific Ocean close to Japan's Izu Islands early Aug. 16. As of 09:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 224 km (139 miles) south-southeast of Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will maintain its strength as it tracks to the east of the Izu Islands through early Aug. 16 before tracking north-northeastward and then northeastward offshore of Chiba Prefecture through Aug. 16. Ampil is then expected to weaken as it tracks northeastward away from Japan through Aug. 18 before weakening into a tropical storm early Aug. 19. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Aug. 16, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a bulletin warning of heavy rainfall, possible landslides, strong winds, lightning, and large waves over eastern Japan and the Tohoku Region over the coming days. Daily rainfall totals of around 25 cm (10 inches) in Kanto-Koshin Region and 20 cm (8 inches) in Tohoku region are forecast through early Aug. 17. Waves of up to 10 meters (33 feet) are expected in the Izu Islands and Kanto Region Aug. 16, up to 8 meters (26 feet) in Tohoku Region Aug. 16-17 and Kanto Region Aug. 17, and up to 6 meters (20 feet) in Tokai Region Aug. 16.

The JMA has issued red heavy rain/landslide, storm, flood, and high wave warnings (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) for the Izu Islands, Chiba, Fukushima, Kanagawa, Saitama, eastern Shizuoka, and Tokyo prefectures. Various other yellow weather warnings are in place across the affected area. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Widespread transport delays are expected as the storm approaches. All Nippon Airways (NH), Japan Airlines (JL), and several smaller airlines have canceled more than 700 domestic and international flights to and from Haneda Airport (HND) and Narita International Airport (NRT) in the Greater Tokyo area. All services on the Tokaido Shinkansen line between Tokyo and Nagoya and some trains on the Tohoku, Joetsu, and Yamagata Shinkansen lines are suspended Aug. 16. JR West is also reducing services on the Sanyo Shinkansen line. Various other train services are also canceled Aug. 16. Highway authorities have warned of possible expressway closures Aug. 16, including along sections of the Tokyo Bay Aqua Line and Ken-O Expressway. The Coast Guard has also advised vessels to evacuate Tokyo Bay in plenty of time before the storm approaches and to avoid entering the bay during the passing of the storm. The Tokyo Bay Ferry and Tokai Kisen canceled all services Aug. 16. Ocean Tokyu Ferry canceled services from Tokyo to Tokushima Aug. 16 and from Tokushima to Kitakyushu Aug. 17. Ogasawara Kaiun delayed services departing from Tokyo Aug. 16 and Chichijima Aug. 17 by one day.

Authorities have issued purple evacuation orders (the second highest level on a five-tier scale) calling for people to evacuate dangerous areas in Mobara City, Chiba Prefecture. Red evacuation orders for the elderly and other vulnerable people have been issued in parts of Chiba, Fukushima, Ibaraki, Kanagawa, and Tokyo prefectures. Officials will likely issue further evacuation orders in affected areas over the coming days. Various sporting events have been canceled and leisure attractions closed across Kanto and Tohoku regions. As of early Aug. 16, around 670 households in the cities of Isumi, Choshi, Togane, and Sanmu in Chiba prefecture are without power.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.