Japan: Typhoon Ampil tracking northward toward eastern Japan as of late Aug. 15 /update 2

Typhoon Ampill is tracking northward in the western Pacific Ocean close to Japan's Izu Islands late Aug. 15. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 435 km (270 miles) south of Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen further as it tracks generally northward and to the east of the Izu Islands late Aug. 15-early Aug. 16. The storm is likely to be a very strong typhoon as it tracks north-northeastward and then northeastward offshore of Chiba Prefecture Aug. 16. Ampil is then expected to weaken into a tropical storm and then transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks generally northeastward away from Japan Aug. 17-19. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Aug. 15, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a bulletin warning of heavy rainfall, possible landslides, strong winds, lightning, and large waves over eastern Japan and the Tohoku Region over the coming days. Daily rainfall totals of around 30 cm (12 inches) in Kanto-Koshin Region, 20 cm (8 inches) in Tokai region, and 12 cm (5 inches) in Tohoku Region are expected late Aug. 15-16 and 20 cm (8 inches) in Tohoku Region and 15 cm (6 inches) in Kanto-Koshin Region late Aug. 16-17. Winds gusting up to 162 kph (101 mph) are expected in the Izu Islands Aug. 15, Tohoku Region Aug. 16-17 and Kanto Region Aug. 17, up to 216 kph (134 mph) in Kanto Region Aug. 16, and up to 126 (78 mph) in Tokai Region Aug. 16. Waves of up to 10 meters (33 feet) are expected in the Izu Islands Aug. 15-16 and Kanto Region Aug. 16, up to 8 meters (26 feet) in Tohoku Region Aug. 16-17 and Kanto Region Aug. 17, and up to 6 meters (20 feet) in Tokai Region Aug. 16. As of late Aug. 14, the JMA has issued red heavy rain/landslide warnings (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) for the southern Izu Islands, red storm/gale warnings for the southern Izu Islands and southern Chiba Prefecture, and red high wave warnings for the Izu Islands, southern and northeastern Chiba Prefecture, and southern Ibaraki Prefecture. Various other yellow weather warnings are in place across the affected area. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Widespread transport delays are expected as the storm approaches. All Nippon Airways (NH), Japan Airlines (JL), and several smaller airlines have canceled more than 700 domestic and international flights to and from Haneda Airport (HND) and Narita International Airport (NRT) in the Greater Tokyo area. The Central Japan Railway Company (JR Central) has announced that services will be suspended on the Tokaido Shinkansen line between Tokyo and Nagoya Aug. 16 due to the approach of the storm. JR East has announced some trains on the Tohoku, Joetsu, and Yamagata Shinkansen lines will be suspended from around 11:00 Aug. 16. JR West is also reducing services on the Sanyo Shinkansen line. Tokyo Metro will implement a planned suspension of service on the Tozai Line between Toyocho Station and Nishi-Funabashi Station from 10:30 through the evening Aug. 16. Reductions in trains are planned between Nakano Station and Toyocho Station and Tokyo Metro has warned that there may be suspensions or major disruptions to timetables on other lines as well. Highway authorities have warned of possible expressway closures Aug. 16, including along sections of the Tokyo Bay Aqua Line and Ken-O Expressway. The Coast Guard has also advised vessels to evacuate Tokyo Bay in plenty of time before the storm approaches and to avoid entering the bay during the passing of the storm. The Tokyo Bay Ferry, which connects Kanaya in Futtsu City, Chiba Prefecture, and Kurihama in Yokosuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture, has canceled some services Aug. 15 and all services Aug. 16.

Authorities have issued purple evacuation orders (the second highest level on a five-tier scale) calling for people to evacuate dangerous areas in Mobara City, Chiba Prefecture, as of late Aug. 15. Red evacuation orders for the elderly and other vulnerable people have been issued in Katori City in Chiba Prefecture and parts of Kawasaki City in Kanagawa Prefecture. Further evacuation orders are likely in affected areas over the coming days. Various sporting events have been canceled and leisure attractions closed across Kanto and Tohoku regions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.