Japan: Typhoon Shanshan tracking northward across western Kyushu as of early Aug. 29 /update 6

Typhoon Shanshan is tracking northward across western Kyushu early Aug. 29 following landfall over Satsumasendai City, Kagoshima Prefecture, around 08:00 Aug. 29. As of 12:00 JST Aug. 29, the system's center of circulation was approximately 141 km (87 miles) south-southeast of Sasebo.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks north-northeastward across the Yatsushiro Sea and makes landfall over western Kumamoto Prefecture late Aug. 29. The system will then turn to track northeastward across Oita Prefecture and exit into the Seto Inland Sea early Aug. 30. Shanshan is forecast to make additional landfalls as a tropical storm over western Ehime Prefecture late Aug. 30, far eastern Kochi Prefecture early Aug. 31, and western Wakayama Prefecture late Sept. 2 before weakening into a tropical depression and dissipating over western Nagoya Prefecture early Sept. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Aug. 29, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) had issued a bulletin warning of strong winds, high waves, landslides, and flooding. The heaviest rainfall of 60 cm (24 inches) is forecast across southern Kyushu through Aug. 30. Swells and heavy seas are likely across western Japan; the highest waves of up to 10 meters (33 feet) are forecast over the Amami and southern Kyushu regions.

The JMA has issued the following watches and warnings:

• Purple (highest level on a three-tier scale) storm surge warnings: Kumamoto Prefecture.

• Purple landslide warnings: Parts of western Ehime, Kagoshima, Kumamoto, Miyazaki, Oita, and western Shizuoka prefectures.

• Red heavy rain, landslide, flood, strong wind, and high wave warnings: Most of the rest of western and central Japan.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Authorities have issued black emergency safety evacuation orders (the highest level on a five-tier scale) for Usa and Yufu cities in Oita Prefecture. Purple evacuation orders are in effect for parts of Aichi, Ehime, Fukuoka, Kagoshima, Kumamoto, Miyazaki, Nagasaki, Saga, and Shizuoka prefectures, and red evacuation orders for the elderly and other vulnerable people across parts of the rest of western Japan.

A landslide in Gamagori, Aichi Prefecture, late Aug. 27 buried five people; authorities have rescued two people, but three others remain missing. 30 people in Miyazaki Prefecture, nine people in Kagoshima Prefecture, and one in Fukuoka Prefecture have been injured. One person remains missing after falling into the sea from a vessel in Kagoshima Port late Aug. 28. At least 160 structures in Miyazaki City, Miyazaki Prefecture, have been damaged. As of early Aug. 29, more than 255,000 households across Kyushu are without power, including more than 212,000 households in Kagoshima Prefecture, mainly in the Osumi and Satsuma regions, and more than 17,000 households in Miyazaki Prefecture.

Airlines have canceled hundreds of flights since Aug. 27 and have warned that further flight cancellations and delays are likely across western Japan over the coming days. Train services are suspended on the Kyushu Shinkansen between Kumamoto and Kagoshima Chuo stations the evening of Aug. 28-29 and on the Nishi-Kyushu Shinkansen Aug. 29. The Tokaido Shinkansen and Sanyo Shinkansen are operating at reduced speeds on some sections and may suspend operations depending on weather conditions. The Sanyo Shinkansen will cancel operations between Hakata and Hiroshima the evening of Aug. 29-30 and may suspend trains between Hakata and Shin-Osaka Aug. 31. Authorities have closed all sections of the Miyazaki Expressway, and portions of the Kyushu, Higashi Kyushu, Minami Kyushu, and Oita expressways.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Additional flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.