Japan: Typhoon Shanshan tracking northward in East China Sea as of early Aug. 29 /update 5

Typhoon Shanshan is tracking northward in the East China Sea early Aug. 29. As of 21:00 JST Aug. 28, the system's center of circulation was approximately 280 km (175 miles) south of Sasebo.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will gradually weaken after making landfall in Kagoshima and Kumamoto prefectures on Aug. 29. The system will subsequently turn northeastward and weaken into a severe tropical storm while transiting the Amakusa islands and then weaken further as it tracks east-northeastward across Kyushu on Aug. 30. Shanshan is forecast to make additional landfalls as a tropical storm in southern Ehime Prefecture on late Aug. 30 or early Aug. 31, eastern Kochi Prefecture on late Aug. 31 or early Sept. 1, and western Wakayama Prefecture on late Sept. 1 or early Sept. 2. The system will have likely weakened to a tropical depression by its reaching Nagoya on late Sept. 2 before ultimately dissipating. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Aug. 29, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) had issued a bulletin warning that the typhoon would approach southern Kyushu by Aug. 29 and then make landfall on the island, bringing strong winds, high waves, landslides, and flooding. The heaviest rainfall of 60 cm (24 inches) is forecast across southern Kyushu through Aug. 30. Swells and heavy seas are likely across western Japan; the highest waves of up to 10 meters (33 feet) are forecast over the Amami and southern Kyushu regions.

The JMA has issued the following watches and warnings:

• Purple (highest level on a three-tier scale) strong wind, storm surge, and high wave warnings: Osumi, Satsuma, Tanegashima, and Yakushima regions in Kagoshima Prefecture.

• Purple landslide warnings: Parts of Miyazaki, Kagoshima, Kumamoto, Ehime, and Shizuoka prefectures.

• Red heavy rain, landslide, flood, strong wind, and high wave warnings: Parts of Kagoshima, Miyazaki, Oita, Kumamoto, Nagasaki, Saga, Kochi, Ehime, Shizuoka, Kanagawa, and Gunma prefectures.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Authorities have issued purple evacuation orders (the second highest level on a five-tier scale) for Amami, Hioki, Ibusuki, Minamikyushu, Soo, Tarumizu cities, Mishima, Toshima, and Yamato villages, and Nakatane and Yakushima towns in Kagoshima Prefecture; Hamamatsu, Kosai, and Makinohara cities in Shizuoka Prefecture; Gamagori City in Aichi Prefecture; and Miyazaki City in Miyazaki Prefecture. Red evacuation orders for the elderly and other vulnerable people have been issued for some locations in Aichi, Kagoshima, Miyazaki, Shiga, and Shizuoka prefectures.

A landslide in Gamagori, Aichi Prefecture, late Aug. 27 buried five people; two have been rescued, but three people remain missing.

Japan Airlines (JL) canceled more than 100 domestic flights Aug. 27-28, mainly at Kagoshima (KOJ), Amami (ASJ), Fukuoka (FUK), and Miyazaki (KMI) airports, and six international flights connecting Kansai International Airport (KIX) and Chubu Centrair International Airport (NGO) with Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG) in China and Suvarnabhumi Airport (BKK) in Bangkok, Thailand, Aug. 28. All Nippon Airways (NH) has canceled at least 80 flights, mainly at Kagoshima (KOJ) and Miyazaki (KMI) airports, Aug. 28-30. Various other airlines have warned that flight cancellations and delays are possible across western Japan over the coming days.

Authorities will suspend operations on the Kyushu Shinkansen between Kumamoto and Kagoshima Chuo stations late Aug. 28-29 and may suspend operations between Hakata and Kumamoto stations and the entire Nishi Kyushu Shinkansen line Aug. 29. Sanyo Shinkansen may experience planned service suspensions or long delays late Aug. 29-31, while the Tokaido Shinkansen may experience delays Aug. 30-31. Authorities have closed some portions of the Tomei Expressway and Shin-Tomei Expressway in Shizuoka and Aichi prefectures to traffic.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Additional flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.