07 Aug 2024 | 03:33 PM UTC
Nigeria: Protest activity, heightened security, and sporadic clashes likely to continue nationwide through at least mid-August /update 3
Activists likely to continue protests across Nigeria through at least mid-August. Curfews, disruptions ongoing; violence remains possible.
Further anti-government protests and counter-protests are likely through at least mid-August. Anti-government activists rallying under slogans such as "End Bad Governance" and "Tinubu Must Go" have planned a series of actions through Aug. 10 over several demands, including electoral and anti-corruption reforms and reduced electricity and fuel tariffs.
Since Aug. 1, well-attended anti-government protests occurred in Abuja, Benin City, Edo, Gombe, Gusau, Ibadan, Jos, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Maiduguri, Port Harcourt, and Yenagoa, among other affected locations. Demonstrations along major roads such as the Abuja-Kaduna and Abuja-Keffi highways caused traffic gridlock. Looting and vandalism incidents occurred in several areas across the country. Police fired tear gas to disperse multiple gatherings, including in Abuja and Lagos. As of Aug. 7, at least 14 casualties have been reported in Abuja and Kano, Niger, Borno, Kaduna, and Jigawa states. Additionally, more than 700 protesters have been arrested by security forces across the country.
In response, activists supporting the government under the slogan "Protect Nigeria" have announced similar actions through Aug. 15. Earlier gatherings saw little participation and occurred mainly in Lagos and Abuja; some minor clashes were reported between rival protesters.
As of Aug. 7, curfews are in place in various locations:
Bauchi State: A 18:00-06:00 curfew is in effect in Katagum LGA.
Jigawa State: A 18:00-05:00 curfew is in place in Babura, Birnin Kudu, Dutse, Gumel, Hadejia, Kazaure, Kiyawa, and Roni LGAs.
Kaduna State: A 24-hour curfew is in effect in Kaduna and Zaria.
Kano State: A statewide 18:00-06:00 curfew is in place.
Katsina State: A statewide 19:00-07:00 curfew is in effect.
Plateau State: A 18:00-14:00 curfew is in place in Jos.
Yobe State: A 18:00-06:00 curfew is in effect in the Potiskum, Gashua, and Nguru Local Government Areas (LGAs).
Government officials or governors may implement similar curfews and other restrictions ahead of protests or in the event of significant local, state, or nationwide unrest.
In the event of future protests, likely gathering locations include city centers of state capitals, notably near governor's offices, government buildings, such as the National Assembly in Abuja, major roads, including highways, and those from city centers to airports. Counter-protesters may attempt to gather in similar areas, raising the risk of confrontations between demonstrators.
An increased security presence and localized travel delays are likely near all gatherings, particularly in city centers of state capitals near government buildings and transport hubs. The potential for clashes between rival activists or with security forces is elevated, particularly if officials ban the anti-corruption gatherings and activists block major roads, including those connecting airports.
Avoid all demonstrations and concentrations of security personnel. If crowds form or violence occurs nearby, leave the area immediately. Do not attempt to navigate any roadblocks. Heed instructions from security services, including curfew orders. Confirm all travel arrangements, including flights, through Aug. 15. Monitor local media for updates, as protests may materialize on short notice. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
Nationwide civil unrest is a recurrent threat in Nigeria, which suffers from high unemployment and inflation. Recent government measures, including the removal of fuel subsidies, which drove energy prices upwards, and recent nationwide protests over similar grievances in Kenya, have likely emboldened activists to call for a large anti-government movement.
