12 Aug 2024 | 04:06 AM UTC
North Atlantic: Potential TC 5 tracking west-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean east of Guadeloupe as of late Aug. 11
Potential TC 5 tracking west-northwest in the North Atlantic Ocean late Aug. 11. Landfall over Guadeloupe likely early Aug. 13.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 is tracking west-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Aug. 11. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 1,295 km (805 miles) east-southeast of Antigua, Antigua and Barbuda.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm late Aug. 12 and make landfall over Guadeloupe early Aug. 13, then Montserrat the afternoon of Aug. 13 before tracking northwestward just south of Saint Kitts and Nevis, then St. Eustatius and Saba through late Aug. 13. The system is forecast to strengthen further and make a close approach to the US Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico through early Aug. 14 before strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks north-northwestward away from Puerto Rico through late Aug. 14. The storm is likely to strengthen further into a Category 2 hurricane as it tracks northward across the North Atlantic Ocean towards Bermuda through late Aug. 16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of late Aug. 11, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Tropical Storm Watches
Guadeloupe
St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
Saba and St. Eustatius
St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
Sint Maarten
British Virgin Islands
US Virgin Islands
Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area from Aug. 13.
The system is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) over the northern Leeward Islands and 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over Puerto Rico, with maximum amounts of 25 cm (10 inches). Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over southern Leeward Islands and eastern Hispaniola and 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) across the Windward Islands are forecast through early Aug. 16.
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above ground level in the British Virgin Islands and US Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. Swells generated by the system are forecast to affect portions of the Leeward Islands from late Aug. 11; these are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
