14 Aug 2024 | 03:28 PM UTC
Pacific Ocean: Typhoon Ampil tracking north-northeastward close to the Ogasawara Islands in the western Pacific Ocean as of late Aug. 14 /update 1
Typhoon Ampil tracking north-northeastward in western Pacific Ocean late Aug. 14. Close approach to Chiba Prefecture, Japan, late Aug. 16.
Typhoon Ampill is tracking north-northeastward across the western Pacific Ocean to the northwest of Japan's Ogasawara islands late Aug. 14. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 867 km (539 miles) south of Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan.
Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen further as it tracks generally northward and passes close to the Izu Islands late Aug. 15-16. The storm is currently expected to veer off to track northeastward just before it reaches Chiba Prefecture late Aug. 16 and will weaken into a tropical storm as it moves away from Japan Aug. 17-19. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late Aug. 14, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a bulletin warning of heavy rainfall, possible landslides, strong winds, lightning, and large waves in the Ogasawara Islands Aug. 14-15, in the Izu Islands from Aug. 15, and in Kanto and Tohoku regions in mainland Japan Aug. 16-17. Daily rainfall totals of around 10 cm (4 inches) are forecast in the Ogasawara Islands late Aug. 14-15. Totals of 30 cm (12 inches) in Kanto-Koshin Region and 12 cm (5 inches) are expected in Tohoku Region late Aug. 15-16 and 20 cm (8 inches) in Kanto-Koshin Region and 12 cm (5 inches) in Tohoku Region late Aug. 16-17. Winds gusting up to 126 kph (78 mph) are expected in the Ogasawara Islands Aug. 14-15 and Tohoku Region Aug. 16 and up to 216 kph (134 mph) in the Izu Islands Aug. 15-16 and Kanto Region Aug. 16. Waves of up to 7 meters (23 feet) are expected in the Ogasawara Islands Aug. 14-15 and Tohoku Region Aug. 16, up to 9 meters (30 feet) in the Izu Islands Aug. 15, and up to 10 meters (33 feet) in the Izu Islands and Kanto region Aug. 16. As of late Aug. 14, the JMA has issued red storm/gale and high wave warnings (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) for the Ogasawara Islands and red heavy rain/inundation warnings for Tochigi prefecture. Various other yellow weather warnings are in place across the affected area. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
Widespread transport delays are expected as the storm approaches. The Central Japan Railway Company (JR Central) has announced that services will be suspended on the Tokaido Shinkansen line between Tokyo and Nagoya Aug. 16 due to the approach of the storm. JR East has also warned of possible disruptions on the Tohoku, Joetsu, Hokuriku, Yamagata, and Akita Shinkansen lines. Flight delays and road closures are also likely in affected areas. The Coast Guard has also advised vessels to evacuate Tokyo Bay in plenty of time before the storm approaches and to avoid entering the bay during the passing of the storm.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
