13 Aug 2024 | 03:16 PM UTC
Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Ampil tracking northeastward across the eastern Philippine Sea as of late Aug. 13
TS Ampil tracking northeastward over the eastern Philippine Sea late Aug. 13. Close approach to Chiba Prefecture, Japan, late Aug. 16.
Tropical Storm Ampill is tracking northeastward across the eastern Philippine Sea late Aug. 13. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 1,091 km (678 miles) south of Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan.
Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen into a typhoon as it tracks northeastward and then north-northeastward to the west of the sparsely populated Ogasawara Islands late Aug. 13-early Aug. 15. Ampil will continue to strengthen as it tracks northward and then north-northeastward passing just to the west of the Izu Islands Aug. 15-16. The storm is currently expected to veer off to track northeastward just before it reaches Chiba Prefecture late Aug. 16 and will weaken into a tropical storm as it moves away from Japan into the western North Pacific Ocean Aug. 17-18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late Aug. 13, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a bulletin warning of heavy rainfall, possible landslides, strong winds, lightning, and large waves in the Ogasawara Islands from Aug. 14 and the Izu Islands from Aug. 15. Daily rainfall totals of around 12 cm (5 inches) are forecast in the Ogasawara Islands late Aug. 13-15, and winds gusting up to 108 kph (67 mph) are expected in the Ogasawara Islands Aug. 14-15 and up to 144 kph (89 mph) in the Izu Islands Aug. 15. Waves of up to 6 meters (20 feet) are expected in the Ogasawara Islands Aug. 14-15 and up to 9 meters (30 feet) in the Izu Islands Aug. 15. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
The Central Japan Railway Company (JR Central) has pre-emptively warned of possible service disruptions on the Tokaido Shinkansen line in Kanto Region Aug. 16-17 due to the approach of the storm.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
