30 Aug 2024 | 07:20 AM UTC
Russia: Drone and missile strikes likely to continue in western regions through at least September /update 4
Drone, missile attacks likely across western Russia through at least September. Business, transport disruptions likely. Casualties possible.
Periodic drone and missile strikes against hydrocarbon-processing facilities, military infrastructure, naval bases, airfields, and defense manufacturers will likely continue across western Russia through at least the end of September. Missile and UAV strikes will likely prompt defensive operations, emergency response, damage to infrastructure and buildings, and possible casualties.
As of late August, Ukrainian forces have targeted multiple hydrocarbon facilities in Russia's Rostov region in recent days. A number of UAVs struck an oil facility in Proletarsk, around 200 km (125 miles) from the Ukrainian border, Aug. 18, prompting a massive blaze lasting more than 10 days.
Most drone strikes target hydrocarbon facilities, radar installations, and military airfields up to 1,000 km (600 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory. Occasional longer-range operations are possible; on July 29, Ukrainian authorities claimed to have carried out a missile strike on a military base in Murmansk, approximately 1,800 km (1,100 miles) from Ukraine.
Long-range missile strikes will likely continue to increase in the coming weeks and months. Russian air defense systems may intercept UAVs and missiles, causing missile debris to fall in untargeted areas. Further strikes against oil facilities are highly likely. Drone activity has occasionally prompted authorities to close the airspace around at-risk airports and to divert flights to alternative facilities. Such closures have typically been brief, however.
Authorities will likely maintain tight security near any critical infrastructure in the region over the coming weeks. Occasionally, strikes may hit significant urban centers, resulting in civilian casualties. Localized disruptions, including flight delays, may persist after authorities sound the all-clear. Drones intercepted by air defense systems may cause damage to residential or other business areas. Additional attacks on other critical infrastructure cannot be ruled out.
Monitor official channels for notifications of incoming military strikes. Seek cover or remain indoors in the event of reports of drone activity, and remain in cover until the all-clear is given. During drone or missile attacks stay away from windows and walls bordering outdoor areas.
Although Ukraine rarely claims responsibility for military strikes within Russia, Kyiv is almost certainly responsible for the intermittent strikes, and has increasingly claimed responsibility for particularly damaging or high-profile attacks. Strikes on hydrocarbon facilities have intensified in recent weeks: dozens of sites have suffered explosions and fires in 2024. Drone strikes have been reported at hydrocarbon facilities, radar installations, and military airfields up to 1,000 km (600 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory. Moreover, the Ukrainian military has received permission to use US-made missiles to target any border areas from which Russian forces are actively attacking. Additionally, the reported missile strike on Murmansk claimed by Ukrainian authorities on July 29 would appear to demonstrate a near doubling of Ukraine's strike range into Russia. Unconfirmed reports indicate that such attacks may have reduced Russian oil refining capacity by 5-12 percent. Bombings targeting Russia’s strategic long-range aerial capabilities have impacted aircraft production facilities, long-range radar installations, strategic bombing aircraft, and airfields.
